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USD/CHF Outlook Feb. 27 Mar. 2

The Swiss franc  rallied against the dollar this week, gaining almost 200 points, closing at the 0.8960 level. The upcoming week has five releases, including GDP.  Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

The Swiss  currency was one of the beneficiaries of the dollar sell-off late last week. Despite weak Swiss economic data and the financial uncertainty gripping the eurozone, the franc surged against the greenback this week.

Updates: The Swiss franc has gained some momentum, as it broke below the psychological barrier of 0.90 last week. The pair is now trading at 0.8980. With the G-20 telling Europe to help itself first before requesting help from the international community, the swissie could benefit from the Euro’s pile of troubles. USD.CHF continued south on the relative market calm and the rise in local employment level to 4.04 million. The new fears about Greece and the Irish referendum sent the pair back up. The KOF Economic Barometer and other economic indicators were largely unchanged, and USD/CHF continued to drift at the 0.8960 level. The dollar recovered slightly, as the pair climbed back over the 0.90 level.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

  1. UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 7:00. This indicator is comprised  on five consumer-based indicators, including consumer confidence and consumer spending. The indicator was up in January to 0.92, but has been below the 1.0 level since last August.
  2. Employment Level: Tuesday, 8:15. Job creation rose slightly in Q4 of 2011, and last month’s reading came in at 4.02M. The markets are predicting little chang this month.
  3. KOF Economic Barometer: Wednesday, 8:00. This well-respected composite index is based on 12 economic indicators. January’s reading was -0.17, the lowest reading since August 2009. Another reading in negative territory will certainly grab the attention of the markets and could hurt the Swiss currency.
  4. GDP: Thursday, 6:45. GDP is released quarterly, and this important  indicator can be a market-mover if the readings  surprise the markets.  The forecast for this month calls for a contraction of 0.1%, which would be the first negative reading since September 2009. It is further indication of a  weak Swiss  economy.
  5. SVME PMI: Thursday, 8:30. This index is based on a survey of purchasing managers. The index came in below 50 last month, indicating industry contraction. A very slight improvement is forecast for this month. If the index can exceed the market forecast and climb over 50, this would be a sign of some renewed economic activity, and would be bullish for the swissie.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF was pointing downwards all week. The pair opened at 0.9148, and reached a high of 0.9164. It dropped all the way to 0.8930, and closed the week at 0.8958, close to the strong support level of 0.8950 (discussed last week).

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with the resistance line at 0.9636. This is followed by 0.9510, which was tested in January and is providing strong resistance. Below, is the line of 0.9412, which earlier in the month was acting as support, and is now in a resistance role. Next is the weak resistance line of 0.9306, which was breached in January.  This is followed by the line of 0.9250, which has strengthened as USD/CHF has move downward. Below, 0.9204 has been providing support until very recently, but now is acting as a resistance line.

The line of 0.9120 continues to be repeatedly tested as the  dollar weakens and the pair moves downwards. USD/CHF punched through the psychologically important figure of 0.90 this week, and the next line of support is at 0.8924. It could be tested on a further downswing by the pair. This is followed by 0.8850, which is providing the pair with strong support since November. Next is the line of 0.8768. The final support level for now is at 0.8710.

I am  bearish on USD/CHF.

The Swiss franc had a banner week against the dollar, as the weak economic data from Switzerland  showed no ill effect on the currency. With the franc breaking through the important 0.90 level, we may see the pair crash through further support levels, as traders jump on the swissie bandwagon.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.