The Swiss franc reversed its recent downward spiral, as USD/CHF dropped about one cent this week. The pair closed just shy of the 0.96 line, at 0.9590. The upcoming week has six releases, including the Libor rate. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
The Swiss franc rebounded from a dismal month of May, as it showed some strength against the US dollar. Foreign Currency Reserves were outstanding in May. As well, the Swiss franc followed the upward trend of the euro, which enjoyed a good week against the greenback.
Updates: The Swiss franc is down sharply at the start of the European trading week, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9578. The first release of the week is the SECO Economic Forecasts on Tuesday. This government report forecasts important components of GDP, and can have some affect on the movement of USD/CHF. The Swiss franc lost more ground, as dollar/swiss climbed above the 0.96 line. The pair was trading at 0.9602. PPI posted a six-month low, declining by 0.2%. The swissie improved slightly, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9573. As expected, the Libor rate remained unchanged at 0%-0.25%. Market analysts will have plenty of weekend reading to catch up on, as the SNB released its Monetary Policy Assessment and Financial Stability Report. As well the central bank held a press conference following the Libor rate announcement. USD/CHF was down slightly, trading at 0.9549.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
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SECO Economic Forecasts: Tuesday, 5:45. This important report provides a forecast of key economic data, such as inflation and employment. Analysts carefully review the report for possible economic trends in the Swiss economy.
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PPI: Wednesday, 7:15. This inflation indicator posted a -0.1% reading in May. The forecast for the June reading stands at a flat 0.0%.
- Libor Rate: Thursday, 7:30. The Swiss National Bank sets the Libor rate every three months. The rate is currently at 0-0.25%. No change is forecast for the rate decision later in the week.
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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment: Thursday, 7:30. The Swiss National Bank releases this report on a quarterly basis. Analysts and investors scour the report for economic trends and hints at future monetary policy. A policy assessment which is more hawkish than expected by the markets is bullish for the Swiss franc.
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SNB Monetary Press Conference: Thursday, 7:30. This press conference follows the setting of the Libor rate. Any unexpected statements could lead to market volatility and change the direction of USD/CHF.
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SNB Financial Stability Report: Thursday, 8:00. This report focuses on the health of the financial and banking sectors, as well as the central bank’s monetary policy. A report that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Swiss franc.
*All times are GMT
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9687, and then moved up to high of 0.9696. The pair then dropped to a low of 0.9540, before retracing. The pair closed the week at 0.9590, just above the support line of 0.9584 (discussed last week).
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We begin above the parity line, with resistance at 1.0066. This line has not been tested since November 2010. This is followed by parity, which continues to be a strong line of resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915, which has held firm since December 2011. Below, there is resistance at 0.9783. This is followed by resistance at 0.9719, which held firm this week.
The line of 0.9584. This line was breached this week, but continues to provide weak support to the pair. Look for this line to be tested further by the pair. This is followed by support at 0.9510. Next, there is support at 0.9412. This line had provided resistance throughout 2012, until it was breached in May on the sharp downward slide by USD/CHF.
This is followed by support at 0.9317. Below, there is support at 0.9250, which had been a strong resistance line for several months prior to May. Close by, there is resistance at 0.9204, protecting the 0.92 line. The final support line for now is the round figure of 0.91, which the pair repeatedly tested in April.
I am neutral on USD/CHF.
The Swiss franc finally showed some strength after losing about six cents in May, as the US dollar surged. Will the upward trend continue? With the daily turmoil in Greece and Spain, investors may wish to avoid risk and stick to safe haven currencies, such as the US dollar. However, if the markets see signs of stability in the EZ or there are weak releases out of the US, the swissie may be able to hold its own against the greenback, or even make some slight gains.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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