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USD/CHF Outlook July 30 – August 3

The Swiss Franc rallied against the US dollar, as USD/CHF  dropped about 150 points, closing  the week at  0.9742. The highlight of the upcoming week is the Retail Sales release. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

With the US  economy continuing to show some signs of weakness, such as weak housing data and a drop in GDP, there is been speculation that the US Federal Reserve could step in and take action. This has hurt the US dollar, as currencies like the Swiss franc took advantage of the problems stateside.

Updates: The Swiss franc lost ground over the weekend as their was market concern over the ability of the ECB to take effective action to tackle the debt crisis, despite tough talk from ECB head Mario Draghi. USD/CHF was testing the o.98 line, trading at 0.9791. The Consumption Indicator will be released on Tuesday. The markets cheered the Consumption Indicator, which climbed to 1.60 points. This was the highest level since April 2011. USD/CHF was unchanged, trading at 0.9785. Swiss banks are closed Wednesday for a national holiday. Retail Sales, a key indicator, will be released on Thursday. The markets are expecting a strong release. The swissie was down slightly, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9763. Retail Sales did not disappoint, posting a 3.7% increase. This figure easily beat the market estimate of 2.8%. SVME PMI came in at 48.6 points, above the forecast of 47.1 points. The swissie has inched below the 0.98 line, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9797.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

  1. UBS Consumption Indicator: Tuesday, 2:00. This important  conusmer index dropped to 1.05 points last month, a three-month low.
  2. Retail   Sales: Thursday, 3:15. This key indicator sparkled in June, jumping 6.2%. The market estimate for  July stands at a  still-respectable 3.6% gain.
  3. SVME PMI: Thursday, 3:30. This PMI has been below the 50 point level since April, indicating continuing weakness in the Swiss   economy. The market forecast calls for the index to decline further this month, to 47.2 points.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9903, and climbed to high of 0.9972. The pair the dropped under the 0.97 line, touching 0.9694, as it briefly broke through  support at 0.9917  (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.9742.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the rally by the Swiss franc, we start lower this week.There is resistance at 1.0136, which has held firm since September 2010. Next is the resistance line  at 1.0066, which was last tested in November 2010.

This is followed by parity, which continues to be a strong line of resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915. This line has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels. Below is 0.9783, which was tested last week, and is currently providing weak resistance.

USD/CHF  is  receiving weak support at  0.9719, as the pair has slid downwards. This is followed by 0.9584, which is providing the pair with strong support. The next line of    support is at 0.9510, which saw some movement earlier in July. Next, there is  support at 0.9412. Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since May. This is followed by support at  0.9250. Further support can be found at 0.9182, which has held firm since May. The final support level for now is 0.9093.

I am neutral on USD/CHF.

USD/CHF has been choppy throughout most of July, and the rally by the Swiss franc may just be a blip. Given the troubles in Europe and the global slowdown, many investors will be drawn to the safety of the US dollar. However, if the US economy continues to produce weak data, the Fed may have to step in, and this could hurt the dollar.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.