USD/CHF was choppy throughout most of the week, as the pair moved up about 70 pips, closing at 0.9874.The upcoming week is very quiet, with only one scheduled release. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
Both US and Swiss releases failed to impress the markets this week. The US has run a string of weak releases, such as poor unemployment and manufacturing numbers, while the Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations is mired in deep negative territory, indicating weak confidence in the sluggish Swiss economy.
Updates: There are no scheduled economic releases until Friday. USD/CHF is choppy to start the trading week, with the pair testing the 0.99 line. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9903. The swissie lost ground after the release of weak PMI data out of Germany and the Euro-zone. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9933. The Swiss franc improved following comments from a senior member of the ECB. Ewald Nowotny, a member of the ECB Governing Council, spoke in favor of providing a banking license to the ESM, which is the Euro-zone’s bailout fund. Such a move could help fight the debt crisis. USD/CHF pushed across the 0.99 line, and was trading at 0.9888. There is talk of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, following the release of weak US housing data. This has hurt the US dollar, and the swissie made some gains on Thursday. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9823.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
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KOF Economic Barometer: Friday, 7:00. This important index is comprised of 12 economic indicators. The index pushed above the 1.0 point level in June, for the first time since last September. The market is forecasting further improvement in July, with an estimate of 1.24 points.
*All times are GMT
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9806, and touched a low of 0.9783. The pair climbed to 0.9887 at the end of the trading week, as the resistance line of 0.9915 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair closed the week at 0.9874.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 1.0368, a line which was last tested in August 2010. The next resistance line is at 1.0220. This is followed by 1.0136, which has held firm since September 2010. Next, there is resistance at 1.0066, which was last tested in November 2010.
This is followed by parity, which continues to be a strong line of resistance. Next, there is weak resistance at 0.9915. This line held firm as the swissie showed some weakness at the end of the week. The pair could continue to test this line this week. Below is 0.9783, which the pair touched on its downswing, before retracing.
The next level of support is at 0.9719, which has strengthened as the pair has moved slightly higher. This is followed by 0.9584, which is providing the pair with strong support. This is followed by support at 0.9510, which saw some movement earlier in July. The next support level is at 0.9412. Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since May. The final support level for now is 0.9250.
I am neutral on USD/CHF.
Given the troubles in Europe and the global slowdown, many investors will be drawn to the safety of the US dollar. However, the US economy has been sputtering of late, and traditional safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc could benefit from the bumpy US recovery.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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