Home GBP/USD Forecast July 13-17

GBP/USD  lost ground for a third straight week, losing about 100 points. The pair closed the week at 1.5443. There are  10 events this week, led by CPI and  Claimant Count Change. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The Fed minutes showed caution towards a rate hike and were dovish in general. The minutes also mentioned Greece, as the current Eurozone crisis is clearly on the mind of the Fed. In the UK, Manufacturing Production was unexpectedly weak,  sending  the pound on a sharp  slide.

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GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:



  1. BOE Credit Conditions Survey:  Monday, 8:30. This indicator is released once a quarter, magnifying the impact of each report. Credit levels are closely related to consumer borrowing and spending, so this indicator is carefully monitored by the markets.
  2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor:  Monday, 23:01. This indicator examines retail sales in BRC shops. The indicator improved in May, coming in at a flat 0.0%. Will we see a gain in the June report?
  3. CPI: Tuesday, 8:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation, and  one of the most important economic indicators. Inflation remains low in the UK, and the indicator posted a weak gain of 0.1% in May, matching expectations. An identical reading is expected in the June report.
  4. PPI Input: Tuesday, 8:30. This indicator measures inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index was dismal in May, posting a decline of 0.9%. This was well off the forecast of a 0.7% gain. Another decline is expected in the June report, with an estimate of -0.6%.
  5. RPI: Tuesday, 8:30. RPI also measures consumer inflation, but does not include housing prices as does CPI. The index has been steady, hovering around the 1.0% level for most of 2015. This trend is expected to continue in the June report, with an estimate of 1.1%.
  6. External BOE MPC Member David Miles Speaks: Tuesday, 17:00.  Miles will deliver remarks at an event in London. A speech which is more hawkish than expected could be bullish for the pound.
  7. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 8:30. This index is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. In April, the indicator surged 2.7%, within expectations. The upswing is expected to continue, with a forecast of 3.3%.
  8. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 8:30. This key indicator posted a decline of 6.5 thousand in May, well below the estimate of 12.5 thousand. The estimate for the June report stands at a decline of 9.3 thousand. The unemployment rate has remained steady at 5.5% for the past two months, and no change is expected  in the  upcoming reading.
  9. CB Leading Index:  Thursday, 13:30. The index is based on 7 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has been previously released. The index improved in the April release, coming in at 0.4%.
  10. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Thursday, 18:00. Carney will speak at an event in Lincoln. Analysts will be listening closely for clues as to the BOE’s future monetary policy.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5550, and  climbed to a high of  1.5628. The pair then reversed directions, dropping to a low of 1.5329, testing support at 1.5341 (discussed last week).  GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5443.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

We start with resistance at 1.6006, just above the symbolic 1.60 level.

1.5909 has  held firm as resistance since November 2013.

1.5769 is the next resistance line.

1.5682  was an important cap in December 2014 and January 2015.

1.5590 has some breathing room as the pair lost ground last week.

1.5485 has switched to resistance role. It is a weak line and could see further action during the week.

1.5341 is  providing support. It has held firm since mid-June.

1.5269 was an important support level in March.

1.5163 is the next line of support.

1.5010, just above the symbolic 1.50 level,  is the final support line for now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

Worries about Greece were expressed in the Fed minutes. If the Greek crisis is resolved, there are less hurdles for the Fed to hike in September, and any hints  about an imminent hike  would be great news for the greenback. The pound will need strong numbers from CPI and Claimant Count Change in  order to reverse its current slide against the strong dollar.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.