Home USD/JPY Forecast March 21-25

USD/JPY  posted sharp losses, as the pair dropped below the 111 line for the first time in five weeks. USD/JPY  closed at  111.51.  This week’s key event is Tokyo Core CPI. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The Federal Reserve was very dovish in its policy statement, sending the greenback to lower levels. There were no surprises from the  BoJ statement, as the central bank maintained its current monetary policy.

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USD/JPY graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

USDJPY_ Daily Chart Mar21-25

  1. Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 2:00.  This manufacturing indicator slipped in February to 50.2 points, short of the estimate of 52.0 points. The markets are expecting a small gain in March, with a forecast of 50.6 points.
  2. All Industries Activities: Tuesday, 4:30. This minor indicator has looked weak, posting four declines in the past five readings. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in the January report, with an estimate of 1.9%.
  3. BoJ Summary of Opinions: Wednesday, 23:50. This report presents a summary of the discussions held at the BoJ’s policy meeting, without mentioning any policymakers by name. Analysts will be looking for clues about the BOJ’s plans regarding monetary policy.
  4. Tokyo Core CPI: Thursday, 23:30. This is the key event of the week. The index has posted two  straight declines of 0.1%,  as  the  threat of deflation  is a serious concern for policymakers. Will the indicator improve in the  March report?
  5. SPPI: Thursday, 23:50. This index measures inflation in the corporate sector. The indicator softened to 0.2% in January, within expectations.
  6. BoJ Core CPI: Friday, 5:00. The BoJ monitors consumer inflation with this index, which removes the most volatile items which comprise the CPI indicator. Core CPI dipped to 1.1% in January. Will the indicator reverse directions and move upwards in the February report?

* All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY opened the week at 113.77  and quickly touched a high of 114.13. The pair then reversed directions and posted sharp losses,  dropping  to  a low of 110.66, testing support at 110.94  (discussed last week). USD/JPY closed the week at 111.51.

Live chart of USD/JPY: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDJPY” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

116.90 supported dollar/yen early in 2015.

115.90 was an important cushion in the second half of 2015.

114.65 held firm for a second straight week, as the yen posted sharp gains before retracting.

113.71 was an important resistance line in July 2005.

112.48 marked the start of a yen rally in January 2008, which saw USD/JPY drop below the 100 level.

110.94 has been a cushion since early February.

109.81 is the next support line.

108.95 was a cushion in May 2006.

107.28 is the final support level for now.

I am  neutral on USD/JPY

The Fed statement took some steam out of the US dollar, but the US economy remains solid, and some positive inflation data would go a long way in convincing the Fed to raise rates in the summer. Meanwhile, the BoJ may have run out of monetary ammunition, which leaves the yen room to continue to improve.

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.