Home EUR/USD Forecast Aug. 29 – Sep. 2
EUR/USD Forecast, Majors

EUR/USD Forecast Aug. 29 – Sep. 2

EUR/USD  struggled to continue higher and eventually collapsed in a late dollar rally. The turn of the month features inflation and inflation data among other figures. Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Euro-zone PMIs  came out slightly below expectations, and also the IFO survey fell short of expectations. This was a light drag on the euro. In the US, new home sales were encouraging, and also durable goods orders beat expectations. On the other hand, GDP did not provide a surprise and Yellen remained cautious in Jackson Hole  but her “strengthening case” for a rate hike and the following hawkish clarification from Vice Chair Fischer certainly gave the dollar a big boost, sending EUR/USD  below 1.12 in the dying hours of the week.

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EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EURUSD September 2016 technical analysis chart down

  1. German Import Prices: Tuesday, 6:00. Prices of imported good feed into consumer prices. Germany saw a significant rise of 0.5% back in June. We now get the figures for  July and they are expected to be flat.
  2. German CPI: Tuesday, during the day, with the all-German figure at 12:00.  Consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy rose by 0.3% according to the final figures for July. We now get the preliminary figures for August which are projected to be flat.
  3. Spanish CPI: Tuesday, 7:00. In July, the eurozone’s  fourth-largest economy saw a drop of 0.6% year over year. A small improvement to -0.5% is expected, but getting out of deflation will likely take more time.
  4. French CPI: Wednesday, 6:45. The  second largest economy saw prices fall by 0.4% m/m in July. This is the last significant input before the all-European  flash CPI is released. A rise of 0.4% is on the cards now.
  5. German Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 7:55. The labor market in the continent’s locomotive is quite robust. In June, 7K people came off the ranked of the jobless, extending a positive streak. Another drop is expected now: -2K.
  6. CPI: Wednesday, 9:00. In July, CPI figures were positive, with +0.2% in the headline number and 0.9% in the core number. While data from Germany, France and Spain is already out at this point, the publication can surprise and has an impact.
  7. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 9:00.  The unemployment rate has fallen to below the highest levels of the crisis. However, the decline has slowed down. The unemployment rate stood at 10.1% in June and it is estimated to have dropped to 10% in July.
  8. Manufacturing PMIs: Thursday morning: Spain at 7:15, Italy at 7:45, final figure for France at 7:50, final German figure at 7:55 and the last euro-zone number at 8:00. In July, Spain’s manufacturing sector was growing slowly, at 51 points, just above the 50 point threshold separating expansion and contraction. A drop to 50.8 is expected. Italy, the third-largest economy, saw similar levels, at 51.2 points and 51.3 is now projected. According to the preliminary read for August, France was in contraction zone with 48.5 points. Germany saw OK growth with 53.6 points, and the whole euro-zone saw 51.8 points. The last three numbers are expected to be confirmed.
  9. Spanish Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:00. The fourth largest economy suffers one of the highest unemployment rates, despite some improvement. In July, 84K people came from the unemployment  ranks, but this is also seasonal: related to the tourism season. This time, a rise of 15K is on the cards.
  10. PPI: Friday, 9:00. Producer prices feed into consumer prices. In June, prices advanced by 0.7%, more than projected. Another small rise is forecast: 0.1%.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar slipped from the highs of 1.1375 (mentioned last week) and extended its falls further down. However, after a brush with support, the pair advanced once again.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1535 is a stepping stone as seen in May 2016 and also beforehand. It is followed by the very round level of 1.15.

1.1460 was a key resistance line in 2015 and 1000 above the multi-year lows. 1.1410 capped the pair in early June. 1.1375  worked as resistance in February and as support in May 2016.

1.1335 worked as the bottom bound of a higher range and then capped recovery attempts in May.  1.1230 capped the pair after the fall in May and worked as resistance.

1.1190 is the post-Brexit high seen in July. 1.1140 cushioned the pair in October.  1.1070  served as a clear separator of ranges during February and also beforehand.

1.10 is a round number and  significant resistance. 1.0905 is the swing low seen in June and serves as a weak support. 1.0825 worked as support in early March 2015 and  should also be watched. This is now a triple bottom.

The post-Draghi low 1.0780 replaces 1.08 as support. 1.0710 is the  next support line on the  chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

Further below, the 2016 low of 1.0520 and the 2015 low of 1.0460 provide further support.

I am bearish on  EUR/USD

As traders emerge from the vacations, the ECB is on course to add more easing while the Fed is slightly less  dovish than usual. This should push the pair lower.

Our latest podcast is titled  Time to inflate inflation targeting and the suspicious oil rally


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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.