Home NZD/USD Forecast Feb. 20-24
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NZD/USD Forecast Feb. 20-24

The  New Zealand dollar  tried to recover amid less noise. PPI and the milk auction stand out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand retail sales missed expectations with a modest rise of only 0.8% and a miss also on the core. The US dollar struggled to make gains despite stronger than expected retail sales and inflation figures as well as an upbeat sounding Yellen.

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NZD/USD  daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. PPI: Sunday, 21:45. New Zealand releases its Producer Price Index only once per month,  making every publication quite important. In Q3, the headline PPI Input advanced by 1.5% q/q, a relatively rapid pace. A move up of 0.9% is on the cards now. PPI Output  increased by 1% and is now predicted to increase by 0.6%.
  2. GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the  European afternoon. Milk, New Zealand’s leading export, and the  accompanying dairy products are key  to the kiwi economy, and the bi-weekly auction moves the currency. In the previous release, prices advanced by 1.3%.
  3. Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 2:00. With retail sales numbers made public only once per quarter, the information about plastic card usage  fills the void. A year over year rise of 8.5% was noted in December. We now get the first report for 2017.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar hovered around levels that were seen last week.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The round number of 0.74 served as resistance and support back in 2015. 0.7310 was the high  point in January 2017.

0.7265 was a swing high in October 2016 and works as resistance. 0.7230 served as support in September 2016.

0.7160 is a pivotal line within the range. 0.7140 worked in both directions in the past months.

0.71, a round number, was a double bottom in October. 0.7075 was a swing low in August and had a role afterward as well. It is followed by 0.7035, the low seen in October 2016.

The round level of 0.70 is still important because of its roundness but it isn’t really strong.  The low of 0.6940 allowed for a temporary bounce.

I am neutral on NZD/USD

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.