Home USD/CAD Outlook: Bearish Amid Optimistic Canadian GDP

USD/CAD Outlook: Bearish Amid Optimistic Canadian GDP

  • US consumer spending moderately increased in October.
  • The US PCE price index in October showed a slower 3% rise from a year ago.
  • The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter.

Heading into Friday, the USD/CAD outlook is bearish, riding the waves of continued dollar weakness. This bearish move came after Thursday’s data unveiled a weakening trend in US inflation for October. US consumer spending moderately increased in October. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rise was the smallest in over 2 1/2 years. 

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Notably, the eagerly anticipated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in October showed a 3% rise from a year ago. It was a slowdown from a three-month streak of 3.4% readings. However, it is still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that the US central bank’s interest rate hikes are likely concluded. Still, they kept the option open for further monetary policy tightening if progress on inflation falters. 

Market indicators show a 97% likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates in its December meeting. Moreover, there’s a 46% chance of a rate cut in March next year, compared to a 27% chance the previous week.

Surprisingly, the Canadian economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession. However, the data revealed growth weakening before the upcoming interest-rate decision. The economy sidestepped a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions.

USD/CAD key events today

  • Canada’s employment change
  • Canada’s unemployment rate 
  • US ISM manufacturing PMI
  • Fed Chair Powell’s speech

USD/CAD technical outlook: RSI reflects weaker bearish momentum

USD/CAD technical outlook
USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Price action and indicators on the 4-hour chart point to a bearish bias for USD/CAD. Notably, the price has made lower highs and lows, indicating a downtrend. Initially, bears paused at the 1.3550 support level, where the price was oversold. It led to a pullback to the 30-SMA, where bulls challenged the downtrend. However, bearish momentum was still strong, as the price made a bearish engulfing candle from the SMA.

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Consequently, the price fell and broke below the 1.3550 support. Still, a closer look at the RSI shows weaker bearish momentum. Although bears made a new low, the RSI made a higher low, indicating a divergence. However, bears will only lose control if the price breaks above the SMA.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.