Draghi now sees “balanced risks” instead of “downside risks”. Growth looks good. However, inflation is subdued and requires ongoing monetary accommodation. Growth forecasts have been upgraded and tail risks have disappeared. Draghi also pats the ECB on the back for creating millions of jobs thanks to QE.
But, inflation has been downgraded even more than leaked yesterday. This hurts the euro. He even added that “nothing substantial has changed on inflation”. Core inflation is stuck and Draghi is frustrated. In order to remove stimulus, they would need to be confident about self-sustained inflation, and it does not seem close.
EUR/USD falls close to 1.12. Follow the live blog below
After the ECB removed its reference to lower rates, EUR/USD surprisingly dropped. Will Draghi hit the euro when it’s down? Or will he sound more optimistic, erasing “downside risks” from his usual text?
ECB President Mario Draghi meets the press on June 8, 2017. He is expected to remove the phrase “downside risks” and set the stage for tapering.
EUR/USD is certainly on the move, with higher volatility than usual.