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EUR/USD managed to hold on to the support line, moving between terrible housing figures in the US and fresh debt worries in the Euro-zone. Will it proceed and break lower? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD below long term support, hovering above support – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Very busy Asian session, after the credit downgrade for Ireland. Euro dropped to 1.2610 support and then recovered.
  • Current Range is between 1.2610 to 1.2665. The 1.2610 support line became stronger after a false break yesterday and after being supported in the Asian session.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2722, 1.2840, 1.2930 and 1.30
  • Long term: On August 20th, EUR/USD lost less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876. This turns into a resistance line now. For today, it stands on 1.2856. It’s slowly becoming irrelevant.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:00 GMT: German Ifo Business Climate  . Exp. drop to 105.8
  • 12:30 GMT: US Durable Goods Orders. Exp. +2.9%. Core Durable Goods Orders (more important) exp. 0.6%.
  • 14:00 GMT: US New Home Sales. Exp. Rise to 333K (annualized).

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical.
  • New home sales in the US are important today, especially after the devastating figure for existing home sales. Yesterday’s reaction to home sales was alarming and could indicate that the US might fall alone.
  • Currensee Community: 56% are Short, 44% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. This is a small change from yesterday, when the ratio was 55:45. These are 912 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

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