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EUR/USD climbed higher but couldn’t convincingly break the resistance line. After many hours of range trading, all is set for the grand  finale  of the week. Will it manage to break higher or collapse? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals  and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD below long term support, attempting on 1.2722 – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  A quiet Asian session saw the pair trade around the 1.2722 line.
  • Current Range is between 1.2665 to 1.2722. Yesterday’s swing above 1.2722 didn’t turn into a convincing breakout.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above  1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30 and 1.3110.
  • Long term: On August 20th, EUR/USD lost less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876. This turns into a resistance line now. For today, it stands on 1.2890. A push upwards will make this line important once again.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • Throughout the day: German Prelim CPI. Exp. +0.2%.
  • 6:00 GMT: German Import Prices  . Exp. +0.1. Actual -0.2 small disappointment.
  • 12:30 GMT: US Prelim GDP (second release). Expected downwards revision from 2.4% to 1.5%.
  • 13:55 GMT: US Reveised Consumer Sentiment (UoM): Exp. upwards revision from 67.8 to 69.8.
  • 14:00 GMT: US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive, although devastating figures that we’ve seen in recent days just shocked the markets.
  • The 1.2610 line is critical on the downside.
  • US GDP, and possibly Bernanke’s speech, will rock the markets.
  • Note that Friday’s, before the London session close, tend to be extreme.
  • Currensee Community: 57% are Short, 43% are long, with shortists having the upper hand. This is a small change from yesterday, when the ratio was 55:45. These are 968 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..

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