EUR/USD Forecast – November 30 – December 4

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Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

The Euro finally broke out of the range but returned to it when the Dubai crisis broke out. EUR/USD awaits a rate decision and 10 other events that will shape its direction in the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Euroland, and an updated EUR/USD technical analysis.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR/USD Chart December 2009

The Euro enjoyed good PMI figures and an excellent score on business climate last week. Apart from the rate decision, CPI, and the German employment change are very important. Also note the Final GDP release, which is expected to confirm the end of recession in Q3. Let’s review the events. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. CPI Flash Estimate:  Europe is suffering from a decline in prices – it’s no secret. But after 4 months of downfall, there is hope – German prices are on the rise, and this will be seen be in the whole continent’s data. CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% in November. Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT.
  2. German Retail Sales: Europe’s largest economy suffered from two consecutive months of decline in retail sales. This important figure, for the whole continent, is published on Tuesday at 7:00 GMT. After a 0.5% fall last month, and 1.5% in the previous month, German retail sales are predicted to rise by 0.6% this time.
  3. German Unemployment Change: Unemployment was one of the hot issues in the German elections in September, and Angela Merkel enjoyed a dropping number of unemployed people in the past four months, beating expectations each time. Well, economists are pessimistic once again, and they expect a rise of 5K this time. Another surprise will sure help the Euro. Published on Tuesday at 8:55 GMT.
  4. Final Manufacturing PMI: 5 minutes after the German unemployment change, the rise above 50 points is expected to be confirmed for the manufacturing PMI. If confirmed at 51 points, this will be the first time that purchasing managers are expecting expansion since June 2008.
  5. Unemployment Rate: Although the all-European unemployment rate is based on data that has already been released by member states, and is predicted very precisely, the official release still moves the Euro, as this number is highly quoted by the media, and affects policymakers. European unemployment rate is predicted to tick up from 9.7% to 9.8% – preventing a rate hike in the near future. Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT.
  6. PPI: All-European Producer Price Index has a rather small impact due to the early releases in the biggest countries, and the release of the CPI earlier in the week. Still, a rise of 0.1%, that is expected, will help the Euro after a fall of 0.4% last month, and weaker-than-expected results in the past three months. Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.
  7. Final Services PMI: Contrary to the manufacturing PMI, this indicator has already passed the 50 mark in the previous month, and the 53.3 result is expected to be confirmed without a fuss. Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT, and is overshadowed by more important releases.
  8. Retail Sales: Similar to the PPI, at the time of release, this important consumer figure is already known for the continent’s biggest countries, but it matters anyway, especially after there has been a decline in retail sales in the past 5 months. Hopes are high again for a break of this trend – retail sales are predicted to rise by 0.2% this time. Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT.
  9. Revised GDP: According to the preliminary release, the recession in Europe ended in Q3. The final release, on Thursday at 10:00 GMT, is expected to confirm the 0.4% rise, after Germany already confirmed its growth last week.
  10. Rate decision: As usual, no surprises are expected by Jean-Claude Trichet. The ECB is expected to leave the Minimum Bid Rate at 1%, for the eighth straight time. JCT”s words at the ECB Press Conference are harder to predict. He might repeat the “strong dollar” mantra, or detail on the exit strategy. The rate decision is on Thursday at 12:45 GMT, and the press conference at 13:30.
  11. Axel Weber talks: The head of the German Bundesbank is mentioned as the heir of Jean-Claude Trichet, and will speak right after him. On Thursday at 15:00, eber will speak in a conference in Frankfurt, and might move the Euro as well.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The popular pair continued the frustrating range trading at the beginning of the week, and the breakout came. EUR/USD reached 1.5144, which was the exact same place that EUR/USD stopped to rest on the way up in March 2008. The Dubai crisis took it back to the range, with a close at 1.4986, higher than last week.

No significant changes have been made since last week’s EUR/USD outlook. 1.5060, the upper part of the range continues to be the initial resistance line. Above that, 1.5144 is the next line of resistance – its importance was strengthened this week, as being the new year-to-date high.

Even higher, a rising Euro will meet 1.5283, which was the bottom line of the range that the Euro traded in during the summer of 2008.

Looking down, 1.48, the lower border of the range, is the first support line. Below that 1.4626 serves as minor support, being the bottom line of a swing low not so long ago. Further down, 1.4444 served as a resistance line for a long time during the summer, and is now a major support line.

I continue to be neutral on EUR/USD.

Although the Euro broke out of range, the looming credit crunch, as seen in the Dubai crisis, can erase any gains made on good European figures.

This pair always receives many excellent articles on the web:

  • Mohammed Isah sees medium term bias higher.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.
  • Casey Stubbs analyzes the breakout.

Further reading:

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    About Author

    Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.