EUR/USD July 31 – Tests 1.33 as Eurozone Data Mixed

EUR/USD  is putting pressure on the 1.33 line in  Wednesday’s European session, but  has not been able to push above this barrier.  Wednesday is very busy in both the Eurozone and the US, and we could see some volatility from the pair as a result.  Taking a look at today’s Eurozone releases, German numbers were mixed, as Retail Sales slumped but Unemployment Change  beat the  estimate.  French Consumer Spending disappointed, posting a four-month low. The Eurozone and Italian Unemployment Rates met market expectations. In the US, there are three key releases – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Advance GDP and an FOMC Policy Statement.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

• Asian session: Euro/dollar  was steady, touching a  high of 1.3269  and consolidating at 1.3256. The pair has moved higher in the European session and is testing the 1.33 line.

Current range: 1.3255 to 1.3300.

Further levels in both directions:  

• Below: 1.3255, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050, 1.30, 1.2940, 1.2890 and 1.2840, 1.28 and 1.2750.
• Above:    1.33, 1.3350, 1.34, and 1.3520.
• On the upside, the pair is testing 1.33. 1.3350 is next.
• 1.3255  is providing weak support. 1.3175 is stronger.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:00 German Retail Sales, exp. 0.1%, actual -1.5%.
• 6:45 French Consumer Spending, exp. 0.1%, actual -0.8%.
• 7:55  German Unemployment Change, exp. -1K, actual -7K.
• 8:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, exp. 12.3%, actual 12.1%.
• 9:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate, exp. 1.6%, actual 1.6%.
• 9:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate, exp. 12.2%, actual 12.1%.
• 9:00 Italian Preliminary CPI, exp. 0.3%, actual 0.0%.
• Tentative – German 30-year Bond Auction.
• 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, exp. 179K.
• 12:30 US Advance GDP, exp. 1.1%.
• 12:30 US Advance GDP Price Index, exp. 1.1%.
• 12:30 US Employment Cost Index, exp. 0.4%.
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI, exp. 53.7 points.
• 14:30 US Crude Oil  Inventories, exp. -21.M.
• 18:00 US FOMC Statement.
• 18:00 US Federal Funds Rate, exp. <0.25%.

For more events and lines, see the  Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Unemployment rates  steady: The unemployment rate in the Eurozone remained at 12.1%, which was a notch better than the estimate of 12.2%. In Italy, the unemployment rate edged lower, from 12.2% to 12.1%. These numbers won’t make headlines, but point to a stabilizing of the employment picture in the Eurozone. With Eurozone economic releases showing some improvement recently, the markets are hoping that this positively impacts on the labor market as well.
• German numbers show improvement: The markets have been busy analyzing this week’s German releases, and the news is mostly positive. GfK Consumer  Climate hit 7.0 points, a multi-year high,  while Preliminary CPI posted a nice gain of 0.5%. Unemployment Change looked sharp, dropping by 7 thousand.  This easily beat the  estimate of  -1 thousand. The fly in the ointment was Retail Sales, which  declined by  1.5%, its worst showing since January. With general elections in Germany  scheduled for  September, every economic release has added significance and will be under the microscope as the election campaign heats up.
• Spanish numbers point higher:  Is the Spanish economy improving? Government officials insist that it is, but the proof of course, is in the pudding. In fact, we are seeing better numbers out of the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy. In June, the unemployment rate dropped from 27.2% to 26.3%.  This marked the first monthly decline since July 2011, when the unemployment rate was around 21%.  On Tuesday, Flash GDP was released. The key indicator posted a modest decline of -0.1% for Q1.  This was the best result since late 2011. If the next  releases points to growth, this would be excellent news for  the long-suffering  economy and could bolster the euro as well.
• Markets eye ECB rate announcement:  The markets will be keeping a watchful eye on the ECB on Thursday, as the central bank sets the new benchmark interest rate. However, it is the follow-up press conference, starring ECB head Mario Draghi, that has  moved the markets recently.  Will Draghi again make some comments that shake up the euro? Analysts are betting that the rate will remain the same, as rates are already so low that a reduction would not have a strong impact. The ECB is more likely to focus on non-conventional monetary measures, such as negative deposit rates and forward guidance. If Draghi mentions  that the ECB is considering these steps, we could see the euro lose some ground.