EUR/USD October 19 – Consolidating Under 1.40

EUR/USD is trading in lower ground, with recovery attempts stopping under 1.40. The ZEW survey, lots of speeches and important US releases will shape its direction. Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD struggling under 1.40. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Active session saw a failed attempt to break above 1.40, and a drop under 1.3950.
• Current Range between 1.3830 and 1.3950
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.3850, 1.3775, 1.3637, 1.3530, 1.3430 and 1.3333.  Above   1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4120, 1.42, 1.4450 and 1.4580.
• EUR/USD is going sideways, after the uptrend support line was lost.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 8:00 Current Account. Exp. -1.9 billion.
• 8:30 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. -7 points.
• 8:30 All-European ZEW Economic Sentiment. Exp. -2.
• 12:30 US Building Permits. Exp. 0.58 million.
• 12:30 US Housing Starts. Exp. 0.59 million.
• 12:30 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet talks.
• 13:00 US FOMC member Janet Yellen talks.
• 14:00 ECB member Axel Weber talks.
• 20:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke talks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. Maybe they will get more attention now.
• The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs which disappointed on Friday. QE2 now looks imminent, but also fully priced in the dollar’s weakness.
• 1.3832 key level on the downside.
• 1.4030 key level on the upside.
• Currensee Community: 53% are long, 47% are short, up from 52:48 yesterday. These are 1095 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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