EUR/USD October 6 – Choppy At High Ground

EUR/USD continues to ride on the weak dollar, but isn’t making impressive breaks. Hints towards the Non-Farm Payrolls can be misleading, but they shake the markets. Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals, and community trends.

EUR/USD stuck at 1.3850 – click to enlarge

* Post updated at 13:30 GMT.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  very quiet session, with EUR/USD struggling around 1.37850.
• Current Range between 1.3850 to 1.40
• Further levels in both direcstions: Below,  1.37, 1.3650, 1.3560, 1.35, 1.3430, 1.3365, 1.3267, 1.3160, and 1.3110.  Above   1.40 1.42 and 1.4450.
• Wide uptrend channel far again: Uptrend resistance began on Sep. 8 and uptrend support on Sep. 13. Trading is characterized with many hours of consolidation, followed by  few hours of sharp rises.  EUR/USD slipped below uptrend support yesterday, but this was only a false break.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 9:00 Final GDP. Exp. 1%. Actual 1%.
• 10:00 German Factory Orders. Exp. 0.9%. Actual 3.4% – Euro positive.
• 12:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. +23K. Actual -39K.
• 13:00 US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner talks about currencies and adds to choppiness.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• Debt issues never went away, but the market disregards them. This could change this week, but in the meantime, the downgrade of Ireland hurt the Euro only for a short time.
• The inevitable second round of quantitative easing in the US still weighs on weakens the dollar, but the size of QE depends on the current situation and especially on jobs.
• ADP Non-Farm Payrolls are a hint towards the official figure, although it can be misleading. The bad figure hurts the dollar. Note that last month’s number was revised from a drop to a rise…
• The uptrend channel should be closely watched.
• Currensee Community: 52% are long, 48% are short, slightly down from 52:48 yesterday. These are 1092 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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