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After losing the uptrend support line, another busy week expects Euro traders, with many important surveys due this week. Here’s an outlook for the 9 events that will shape the Euro’s trading, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now at lower ground.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

eur usd forecast

The economic sentiment in Europe continues to deteriorate, but there are also good signs that show the end of the debt crisis. The gloomy mood took over at the end of the week, as EUR/USD lost a long term uptrend support line. Which mood will take control this week? Let’s start:

  1. Flash PMI: Published on Monday morning – at 7:00 GMT in France, 7:30 in Germany and 8:00 for the whole continent. All these purchasing managers’ indices have been above the critical 50 point mark for quite some time, with services in France and German manufacturing standing above 60 points last months. All the numbers are expected to remain above 50 this time as well, and to create high volatility, though no long term changes.
  2. Consumer Confidence: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT.  This official survey of 2300 consumers is also in the negative zone for many months. The score unexpectedly improved from -17 to -14 last month and is expected to edge up once again.
  3. German Final GDP: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. Germany stunned the world with a whopping 2.2% growth rate in Q2 – the best since Germany’s reunification. This is expected to be confirmed now, showing that Germany carries the whole Euro-zone by itself.
  4. Industrial New Orders: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. The total value of new orders from manufacturers has been on the rise. Last month’s rise of 3.8% was really great for the Euro, but now, a correction is expected, with a small drop.
  5. NBB Business Climate: Published on Tuesday at 13:00 GMT. This wide survey of 6,000 businesses is of high importance, despite coming from a small country – Belgium. After already reaching -2.4 points, this index deteriorated back to -7.9 and last month recovered to -6.5. These negative numbers mean worsening economic conditions. A small improvement is expected this time.
  6. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT. This important survey of 7000 businesses has always been more positive than other indicators, yet its surprise jump from 101.8 to 106.2 last month gave a big boost to the Euro. It’s expected to remain unchanged now. Any result will rock the common currency. The ZEW Economic survey was quite bad last week.
  7. German  GfK Consumer Climate: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. Gfk surveys around 2300 consumers for its important survey. After reaching 3.2 points in September, the score eased to 3.2 and climbed back up, with a nice 3.9 figure last month. A similar result is expected now.
  8. M3 Money Supply: Published on 8:00 GMT. After 4 months of decreases in the amount of money in circulation, a surprising rise was finally seen last month with a 0.2% rise. Another small rise is expected now. More money in circulation means more inflationary pressures and a bigger chance for a rate hike.
  9. German CPI: Published on Friday. This figure is composed from each of the different German states that release their figures. The past few months saw very small rises in prices – nothing that will trigger a thought of a rate hike. Last month’s rise of 0.2% will probably be followed by a 0.1% rise this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro touched base with the 1.2722 support line at the beginning of the week, and then stayed away from it, ranging between 1.2770 and 1.2930 during most of the week. And then, on Friday, a sharp fall sent the pair below the long term uptrend support and below the 1.2722 support line. After bottoming out at 1.2663, EUR/USD closed at 1.2707.

EUR/USD now trades between the aforementioned 1.2722 line and 1.2610, which was a minor resistance line in May and in July. Note that some lines have changed since last week’s outlook.

Looking down, the next line of support is already more significant – 1.2460 served as a resistance line and later as a support line in several occasions. Below, the “Lehman levels” of 1.2330 provide further minor support.

Lower, 1.2150 is a very strong line of support – it held the pair firmly in May and later in July. Even lower, the round psychological number of 1.20 provides further support.

Looking up, the 1.2880 provides weak immediate resistance above 1.2722. Higher, the past week’s highs of 1.2930 provide more serious support.

Higher, the round number of 1.30 is the next line of support, and it’s followed by 1.3110, which worked as a clear line of support and later as resistance, and is a strong hurdle. The last resistance line is 1.3267, which also worked in both directions.

It’s important to stress that the long term uptrend support line extending from June 7th up to August 20th has been clearly broken.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Bernanke’s groundbreaking statement about global slowdown, the notion that the Euro-party is over and the clear break of the last long term uptrend support, draw a conclusion that more drops are awaiting down the road.

This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

  • James Chen sees a break of multiple support levels on EUR/USD, and marks the next milestones.
  • Casey Stubbs sees more losses ahead, after the pair broke the support line.
  • Andrei posts technical levels for the Euro and other pairs on a weekly basis.
  • TheGeekKnows provides a review of the past week and a look forward.

Further reading:

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