EUR/USD Outlook – November 22-26

Apart from the ongoing Irish crisis, a very busy week expects Euro/Dollar traders, with no less than 11 events. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for the volatile EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Things seemed quite bad for the Euro early in the week, as Austria said no to Greece, and Finland opposed aid to Ireland. But as the Irish crisis neared a resolution, the Euro started a recovery. Will we see strong movements this week as well? Probably so. Let’s start:

1. Consumer Confidence: Monday, 15:00. This survey of 2300 consumers is an official survey from Eurostat. In the past few months, it has shown improvement, but the figures still remained negative, meaning that consumers are still pessimistic. Another small improvement is expected now – from -11 to -10.
2. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Monday, 16:00. The president of the ECB will speak in the European parliament and will shed some light on the debt crisis and the economic situation. Questions from parliament members can trigger interesting statements that will rock the Euro.
3. German Final GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. After an outstanding second quarter, German growth returned to “normal” figures in Q3, with a rise of 0.7%. This will probably be confirmed now, in the final read for this quarter.
4. German  GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. According to GfK, German consumer confidence stalled last month. This indicator remained at 4.9 points, falling short of expectations. The 2000 strong survey is now predicted to rise to 5.1 points.
5. Flash PMI: Published in France at 8:00, in Germany at 8:30 and for the whole continent at 9:00. The initial purchasing mangers’ numbers for both manufacturing and services sectors create a very busy hour in EUR/USD. All the numbers stand above the critical 50 point mark – meaning that all sectors are expanding everywhere, and they’re likely to remain that way now. German manufacturing is expected to stand out with a score of 57 points, while the all-European services sector is likely to stay behind with 53.2 points.
6. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 9:00. This indicator rarely disappointed in the past year, usually showing optimism. The 7000 businesses surveyed here are expected to show another improvement, and rise from 107.6 to 107.7 points. Any result will rock the Euro.
7. Industrial New Orders: Wednesday, 10:00. This is a very volatile indicator that tends to alternate between drops and rises. After a rise of 5.5% last month, a drop of 2.7% is predicted in the value of new purchase orders across the Euro-zone.
8. NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 14:00. This indicator comes from a small country, Belgium, yet it tends to have a strong impact on the Euro. It has exceeded expectations in the past few months, but still remained in negative territory, meaning worsening conditions. It’s now predicted to edge up from -2.8 to -2.7 points.
9. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy saw a relatively big jump in consumer spending last month – 1.5%. This time, a modest rise is expected, 0.2%. A drop will weigh on the Euro.
10. M3 Money Supply: Friday, 9:00. After a few months in which the amount of money in circulation dropped, it began expanding again, showing that deflation is not on the agenda. A rise of 1.3% is expected now, after a 1% rise last month. A bigger rise will indicate rising inflation.
11. German CPI: Friday. Consumer prices are released separately by the different German states, so this event spans over most of the day. Inflation in Germany is very low, and is expected to remain low. After a rise of 0.1% last month, a rise of 0.2% is likely now.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/Dollar dropped sharply at the beginning of the week, finding support only at 1.3435 (mentioned last week) before recovering and closing at 1.3669, a weekly loss of around 20 pips, in a very volatile week.

Immediate support is found at the 1.37 support line, which was a low point a few weeks ago. Above, 1.3830 is the next line of resistance on the way, also substituting from support – this is a stronger line.

Higher, 1.3950 served as a pivotal line during October’s range trading, and continues to hold this position. Above, 1.4030 is a strong line of resistance immediately above the round number of 1.40. It was the closing spot of EUR/USD in the previous week.

Above, 1.4160 was a peak in October and it’s followed by 1.4218  – a support line from the past. There are more lines above, but they are too distant at the moment.

Looking down, 1.3637 works as the immediate yet weak cushion.  Lower, 1.3530 was a support line at the beginning of the year, and now has a stronger role after holding EUR/USD from falling further.

Lower, 1.3435 provided strong support in the past week, being a 7-week low, and also in February.  1.3334 was a peak in mid August, a peak that held for quite some time.

Below, 1.3267, which provided support recently, and 1.3114, which worked in both directions many times in the past provide further stepping stones on the way down.

Even lower, 1.2920 capped the pair many times during August and when it was broken, the Euro rallied quickly. This is now a strong line of support. 1.2720 worked as resistance and then as a pivotal line during the summer. The last line for now is 1.2587, the lowest point in four months.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

There’s lots of hope that the problems in Ireland will be resolved this week, but this is likely to shift investors’ focus to Portugal and Spain, that lend money in the bond market all the time. As anger mounts in the Euro-zone, instant bailouts will be very problematic. This will continue weighing on the Euro.

This pair receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my picks:

• James Chen’s strength/weakness meter sees an improving position for the Euro.
• Kathy Lien talks on CNBC about the Chinese rate hike, the Euro’s state and more.
• Adam Kritzer follows up on a previous article and discusses how the Euro correction is here.
• Sophia Todorova, on Casey’s site, provides a plan for trading EUR/AUD.
• Jamie Coleman wraps the last session and notes significant differences between various ECB members.
• Andriy marks technical levels and sees a sell trend for EUR/USD.
• TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.

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