Two major German surveys are the highlights of this week’s European events. Here’s an outlook for these events, and an updated technical analysis for the strengthening Euro.
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
EUR/USD managed to overcome the loss of uptrend support, and continued moving forward. Will it make more gains now? Let’s start:
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. 350 analysts and institutional investors participate in this all-important survey. For the first time in a few years, the index fell below 0 – meaning pessimism about the future. This came after months of deterioration. This time, it’s expected to recover and return to positive ground. The ZEW institute also publishes a figure for the whole continent, which stood on 4.4 points last time and is now expected to remain at the same level.
- Current Account: Tuesday, 9:00. The Euro-zone’s deficit squeezed in recent months and reached 3.8 billion, about half the size it was two months ago. A small drop is expected now.
- German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. The Euro-zone’s largest economy showed that producer prices stalled last month, after rising nicely in previous months. A small rise is expected now, but this won’t trigger worries about inflation.
- Flash PMI: Thursday – 7:00 in France, 7:30 in Germany, 8:00 for the whole continent. Each release consists of a purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector as well as for the services sector. All the numbers are above 50, meaning economic expansion, and all of them are expected to remain above this figure. The French services sector stands out with the best score – 58.2 points.
- Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. This official survey by Eurostat polls 2300 consumers. The indicator showed higher confidence in recent months, but the score is still negative – pessimistic. Another improvement is likely after last month’s score of -11, but it will still take time until we get a positive score.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. Contrary to the ZEW survey, Ifo’s survey of 7000 businesses is always more optimistic and tends to exceed expectations. It’s now expected to edge up once again from 106.8 points it reached last month. This indicator always rocks the Euro.
* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD started higher, but quickly dropped and briefly went below 1.3830. It then climbed and made an impressive break above the important 1.4029 line. But the finish of the week was bad, sending it to close at 1.3975, close to last week’s close.
EUR/USD is capped by 1.4029 – this line was a peak in February and was conquered in the past week, although the Euro couldn’t settle above it. The round 1.40 level is eyed by many politicians.
Higher, 1.4217 capped the pair back in January and worked as a support line in December. Above, 1.4450 worked as a support and resistance line during that same period of time and is relevant as well. The next level is 1.4580 which was a stubborn peak around January as well.
Looking down, 1.3830 was a strong line of support during February and March. 1.3637 was the bottom in the past weeks and is another strong line of support.
Lower, 1.3530 worked as support at the beginning of the year, and had a minor role in September. Below, 1.3435 provided strong support in February and is now a minor line as well.
The next lines below are 1.3267, which provided support recently, and 1.3114, which worked in both directions many times in the past. There are more lines below.
The steep uptrend channel that accompanied the pair in the past six weeks was broken too many times. EUR/USD closed below it. It still appears on the charts, but it’s importance is lower now.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
With the loss of uptrend support, the failure to hold above 1.40 and the calls for a weaker all support a drop. The main driver of the Euro higher in recent weeks, the new quantitative easing program in the US, seems already fully priced in the greenback’s weakness.
Here are more great EUR/USD reviews:
- James Chen sees the US dollar as the weakest currency, for a fourth week in a row. The Euro is in the middle.
- Mohammed Isah sees a possible correction for the pair.
- Jamie Coleman summarizes the week and reports about talks to coordinate currency values. Will this be a result of the currency war?
- Casey Stubbs sees opportunities in EUR/GBP.
- TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.
- Andriy posts technical levels for the EUR/USD and other pairs on a weekly basis and sees a sell trend this week.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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