EUR/USD Sep. 10 – Dipping Into Lower Waters

EUR/USD got out of the perfect range and dipped lower, retreating quickly. Today is a rather light day in terms of events. Will it lose the critical support line? Here is a quick update on technicals, fundamentals  and community trends.

EUR/USD supported twice (red line) at 1.2660, twice resisted at 1.2770 and dipped lower. Click to enlarge.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  A dip lower to 1.2640 and a retreat back to the range.
• Current Range is between 1.2660 to 1.2770.
• Further levels: Below,  1.2610, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150.  Above   1.2770, 1.2840, 1.2930, 1.30, and 1.3110.
• Uptrend channels broken and left behind: EUR/USD traded in a principal uptrend channel and also a secondary one. Both were broken earlier this week, and are becoming irrelevant.
• Double bottom at 1.2660: This line also provided support last week. The double bottom seen in the past few days makes it a strong support line now.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All times are GMT. Most important events emphasized.

• 6:45: French Industrial Production. Exp. 0.8%.
• 14:00: US Wholesale Inventories. Exp. +0.4%.

EUR/USD Sentiment

• The reason for the big collapse earlier this week – European debt issues, with a strong focus on Irish banks, made a “comeback”.
• Market is drifting between “risk on” and “risk off” with a tendency to “risk on”. With “risk off”, good US figures boost the dollar and bad ones hurt it. When risk is on, bad US figures boost the dollar. In recent days, we’ve seen more normal behavior.
• With the double bottom at 1.2660, it now became the stronghold on the downside.
• Friday always brings action, as traders rush to close positions before the weekend.
• Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long, up from 57:43 yesterday. These are 1003open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

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