Fiscal Cliff or Greek Cliffhanger – Which Poses More

As we come back and try to return to normal, the US Presidential elections take center stage as we are one day before the election.  While most polls are showing President Obama ahead of Governor Romney, the results are pretty close and most traders are taking a sideline route ahead of the vote.  

Adding to the uncertainty of the US election, the G-20 financial leaders met over the weekend and their concern remains with the US economy, the “fiscal cliff” and how that may affect the world economy as we head towards January 2013.  A failure of the US economy would create a problem for the world economy as well, and finance ministers are urging the US to deal with it.  According to Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty, the “fiscal cliff” issue creates more risks short-term than the debt crisis in the Eurozone.

The meeting ends today and a final communique will be released sometime after.  This communique is expected to point out that there are risks ahead, while global growth remains modest and the risks remain elevated.  Part of that is the anticipated delays of implementation of new policy in Europe as well as possible extreme fiscal tightening in the United States and Japan.  Weaker growth is also expected in emerging market economies.

Concern over Greece has once again put pressure on the EUR.  There are two votes this week in Greece that are crucial to the country getting their next tranche of bailout funds.  One includes a bill of EUR 1 billion of reforms and cuts and the 2013 budgets.  Political leaders are commenting that the country faces two choices: one difficult and one catastrophic.  They are referring to austerity and the possibility of a EUR exit.

The EUR has traded above and below the 1.2800 level in overnight trading reaching a low of 1.2776.  The concern remains the Euro debt crisis and the continuing problems regarding Greece.  After a few weeks were it was expected the “Greek problem” was being handled, it appears that once again the problems still remain and they are having a negative EUR effect.

According to the latest CFTC data, EUR net short positions have not increased in the latest week ending on October 30.  Short positions were at 58.2k as compared to the week before number of 55.2K.  So, the market could be considered primed for a push lower, if the news coming out of Europe warrants that change.

It appears that most of the financial market participants in the hurricane affected New York metropolitan area will be back at their desks today.  I would expect trading to get back to normal, with a lower EUR bias being the main theme today.  Currently the EUR is trading just below the 1.2800 handle.  Support below there is at 1.2775, followed by 1.2750.  We have remained in the 1.2800 – 1.3170 trading range for a while and it will be interesting to see how the markets take this latest move and possible breakthrough.

Asian equity markets were lower overnight, as are the European equity markets this morning. DOW Futures are slightly higher at 4:45 am, indicating a positive opening to the US equity markets.

Further reading:  Is an Obama Victory Already Priced In?