The dollar retreated against some currencies, but remained stronger than the euro, which reached news historic lows against many currencies. Will the euro continue taking a different path than other risk currencies? German Ifo Business Climate, US housing data, and GDP figures are the main market movers this week. Here is an outlook on the major events for the coming week.
Last week, Ben Bernanke did not offer any clues for a possible QE package in the near future, despite weak US data and his acknowledgement that the economic recovery was “fragile”. More sluggish US figures were the unexpected drop of 0.5% in Retail sales and 0.4% decline in Core sales during June, defying predictions of growth and a lower than expected improvement in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reaching -12.9 in July, while predicted a better release of -7.9. Will we see a change in view of the Federal Reserve concerning more QE measures?
- Euro-Zone German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. EU’s leading nation became more pessimistic in May regarding future economic outlook. The survey revealed sentiment dropped to 105.3 compared to 106.9 in the previous month, while economists expected a smaller decline to 106.1. Another drop to 104.8 is predicted now.
- UK GDP: Wednesday, 8:30. The UK economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter, contrary to the 0.1% growth predicted by analysts. The main cause for this recession was weak construction. However the Bank of England believes underlying growth in the economy is stronger than the figure released. Another 0.2% contraction is expected now.
- US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. New U.S. single-family house sales edged up in May to 369,000 compared to 343,000 in April. This sharp rise is a two-year high completing the fourth month of gains, indicating the housing market is gaining some momentum. The actual figure was well above the 347,000 units predicted by economists. Residential construction is expected to raise gross domestic product for the first time since 2005. A further rise to 373,000 is anticipated this time.
- NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the official cash rate at 2.50% although providing stimulatory measures to ease domestic monetary conditions. The decision was within expectations. The RBNZ stated in its quarterly Monetary Policy Statement that global economic outlook had worsened since the March statement together with lower commodity prices has negatively impacted New Zealand’s economic outlook. No Change in policy is anticipated this time.
- US Durable Goods Orders: Thursday, 12:30. Demand for long-lasting U.S. products excluding volatile transportation items, increased less than predicted in May rising 0.4% after dropping 0.6% in April. However the increase was less than the 0.7% gain anticipated by analysts. A small increase of 0.1% is expected.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing their initial jobless applications returned to its average level reaching 386,000 claims last week following the sharp drop caused by a seasonal auto-plant retooling period. The rise was well above predictions for 367,000 claims. A decline to 381,000 is estimated.
- US Pending Home Sales: Thursday, 14:00. Pending home sales in the U.S. surged 5.9% in May, well above the 1.2% rise predicted by analysts, following 5.5% plunge in the previous month. This reading is 13.3% higher than the same month last year indicating a real recovery in the housing market. A further rise of 0.8% is predicted now.
- US Advance GDP: Friday, 12:30. The US economy grew less than predicted in the first quarter dropping from 3.0% in the previous quarter to 1.9%. One of the probable cause for this decline is the sharp increase of gas prices, which decreasing disposable income. Prospects for the second quarter do not seem positive in light of the weak domestic product growth. An expansion of 1.5% is forecast this time.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
*All times are GMT.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.