Forex Weekly Outlook – October 25-29

Many important events await forex traders this week with Ben Bernanke’s Speech, US Existing Home Sales, American Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders, Unemployment Claims and Advance GDP. Here’s an outlook for the major market-moving events that will shape forex trading.

The U.S. Dollar continued its decline against most of the other major currencies last week partly due to the mixed nature of U.S. economic releases. Key employment numbers from the United States continue to weaken, while some numbers such as Retail Sales   showed some improvement. This week features many market moving events for the USD. Let’s see whether the USD will change direction this week.

1. Ben Bernanke Chairman of the Federal Reserve Speaks in Arlington: Monday, 13:30. Mr. Bernanke gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve/Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ‘Mortgages and the Future of Housing Finance’ conference. In his testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission panel  on September 2, Mr. Bernanke said that the housing bubble was not necessarily caused by the Fed’s monetary policy but rather was more likely the result of over optimism about the housing market which supported the notion that prices would always rise. It will be interesting to hear his current speech and watch for its impact on the housing market and on the wider economy.
2. US Existing Home Sales: Monday, 15:00. Sales of previously occupied homes rose in August to an annual rate of 4.13 million, nevertheless it is still considered as the second-worst month for sales in more than a decade. A small rise to 4.29 is expected now.
3. British Preliminary GDP: Tuesday 9:30. The 1.1% increase in GDP in the second quarter was surprisingly strong and well above market expectations showing that the UK recovery is gathering momentum. A smaller rise of 0.4% is expected now.
4. American CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday 15:00.  Consumer Confidence Index fell to a reading of 48.5 in September from a revised 53.2 in August. Analysts were very disappointed by this report which plunged below the 50 point line. Consumers are still concerned about the economic conditions and without them spending, the markets could be affected. A small rise to 49.69 is expected now.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday 13:30.   The overall picture is encouraging despite the 1.3% drop is New Orders for Durable Goods  due to volatile transportation equipment of non-defense aircraft component. The Core Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 1.7% well above expectations for a 0.9% increase. A smaller rise of 0.6% is expected in the Core Durable Goods while a nice rise of 2.0% is forecasted for the Durable Goods this time.
6. American New Home Sales: Wednesday 15:00. Sales of new homes had their second-worst month on record in August with an unchanged seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 288,000 signaling that the  housing market  remains the weakest spot in US economy. A small rise of 301K is expected now.
7. Japan Rate decision: Wednesday Morning. Under pressure to support the economy BOJ cuts interest rates to near zero levels -0.10% reinstating the so called zero-interest policy that the bank ended in July 2006. This came in the face of growing evidence that the yen’s strength was hurting the economy and slowing export growth. The unexpected move by the BOJ weakened the yen against the dollar, pushed up Japanese government bond futures and helped stock prices turn positive. The same policy is expected to continue now.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday 13:30. Fewer workers filed new claims for jobless benefits last week, but the net change over the past two weeks was not big enough to suggest any major improvement in the labor market. Initial unemployment claims fell by 23,000 to 452,000.  The U.S. jobs market remains weak even though the economy has been expanding at a steady pace for more than a year.   The lack of jobs is likely to be among the top issues voters think about on Nov. 2 when they head to the polls for midterm elections. Fed officials, meanwhile, are expected to take some additional actions to help the struggling recovery when they gather on Nov. 2-3 for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  A similar number of 453K is expected this time.
9. Canadian GDP: Friday 13:30. Canada’s gross domestic product dropped 0.1% in the previous month. A softer Canadian housing market and guarded spending by U.S. consumers are weighing on Canada’s economy. A rise of 0.3% is expected now.
10. American Advance GDP: Friday 13:30. The 2.4% estimated growth rate of US GDP for the second quarter of 2010 underwent an unusually large downward revision with the release of the real GDP in August showing growth of just 1.6 percent from the previous quarter. The biggest cause of the revision was an unexpected rapid growth of imports, which outpaced exports. We will probably see a slight improvement of 2.2% this time.

Further reading:

• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free..