GBP/USD Forecast April 19-23 – Pound punches above 1.38
GBP USD Forecast, Majors, Weekly Forex Forecasts

GBP/USD Forecast April 19-23 – Pound punches above 1.38

GBP/USD climbed close to 1 percent last week, reversing the losses seen a week prior. The upcoming week has five releases.  Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the UK, the economy posted a modest gain of 0.4% in February. Manufacturing Production rebounded with a gain of 1.3% in February, well above the estimate of 0.5%.
In the US, CPI rose in March, but the reaction of the US dollar was muted. Headline CPI climbed from 0.4% to 0.6% and Core CPI improved to 0.3%, up from 0.1%. Retail sales soared in March – headline retail sales came in at 9.8% and the core reading rose 8.4%, well above the forecast.

GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Employment Report: Tuesday, 6:00.   Wage growth has been at high levels. In January, wage growth came in at 4.8% and the estimate for February stands at 4.7%. Claimant Change jumped to 86.6 thousand in February and is expected to fall to 24.5 thousand in March.
  2. Inflation: Wednesday, 6:00. With lockdown restrictions easing, inflation is expected to move higher. Headline CPI is projected to rise from 0.8% in March, up from 0.4%, while Core CPI is expected to climb from 0.9% to 1.1%.    
  3. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 10:00. Sales order volume is expected to increase for the first time in two years, with an estimate of 3 for the April release. In March, the indicator came in at -5 points.
  4. GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 23:01. The UK consumer remains pessimistic, but the index is showing improvement. The March reading came in at -16 and the consensus for April stands at -12.
  5. Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00. Retail sales bounced back in February, with a gain of 2.1%. The estimate for March is 1.5%.
  6. Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 8:30. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth, well above the 50-level which separates contraction from expansion. The forecast for April stands at 59.0.
  7. Services  PMI: Friday, 8:30. Services moved back to expansionary territory in February, rising from 49.7 to 56.8. The upswing is expected to continue in March, with an estimate of 58.6.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.4036.

1.3944 is next.

1.3824 has switched to resistance after the pound sustained sharp losses last week.

1.3699 is an immediate line of support.

1.3582 (mentioned last  week)  is the final support level for now.


I am neutral on GBP/USD

The US economy continues to signal a strong recovery, with strong employment and retail sales numbers. The UK economy is also headed in the right direction, as the government continues to lift health restrictions.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.