GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 16-20

GBP/USD reversed directions last week, as the pair posted strong gains of 180  points. GBP/USD closed the week at 1.5232. This week’s key events are CPI and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

It was a mixed bag out of the  US last week, as  the markets continue to speculate about a rate hike in December.  PPI and Retail Sales missed estimates, but UoM Consumer Sentiment beat the forecast. Earlier in the week, US jobless claims repeated at 276 thousand,  coming in above the forecast for a second straight week. The Fed is leaning towards a hike, but by no means is it a done deal.

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GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Rightmove HPI: Monday, 00:01. This indicator provides a  snapshot of activity in the UK housing sector. The index  posted a gain of 0.6%  in the  October report,  compared to 0.9% a month earlier.
2. CPI: Tuesday, 9:30. CPI measures the change in consumer prices and is a key event. The index dropped into negative territory in September, with a reading of -0.1%. The markets are expecting the same reading in the October report, as deflation is becoming a greater concern for the UK economy.
3. PPI Input: Tuesday, 9:30. This manufacturing inflation indicator surprised the markets with its first gain in five months in September. The index came in at 0.6%, well above the forecast of 0.2%. The markets are expecting a small gain of 0.2% in October.
4. RPI: Tuesday, 9:30.RPI is an important inflation indicator, and differs from CPI in that it includes housing costs. The index slipped to 0.8%, its lowest level since November 2009. This underscores weak UK inflation indicators. The markets are expecting more of the same, with a forecast of 0.9% for October.
5. 10-year Bond Auction: Wednesday, Tentative. The yield on 10-year bonds has been under the 2.00% level in recent months, with the yield falling in October to 1.82%, down from 1.95% a month earlier.
6. Retail Sales: Thursday, 9:30. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can have an immediate impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator impressed with a sharp gain of 1.9% in September, crushing the estimate of 0.3%. This was the strongest reading we’ve seen since December 2013. However, the markets are braced for a sharp downturn in October, with the estimate standing at -0.4%.
7. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 11:00. This manufacturing indicator continues to sputter, and plunged to -18 points in October, well short of the forecast of -8 points. Another decline is anticipated for November, with an estimate of -10 points.
8. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 9:30. The indicator has managed only one monthly surplus in 2015. Still, the deficit narrowed in September, coming in at GBP 8.6 billion. This beat the forecast of GBP 9.1 billion. More good news is expected in October, with an estimate of GBP 5.5 billion.

* All times are GMT

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5052 and quickly touched a low of 1.5047. It was all  uphill from there, as the pair  climbed to a high of 1.5263,  as support held at  1.5269 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.5232.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

1.5682 was a key resistance line  in December 2014 and January 2015. 1.5590 follows.

1.5485 was tested in the first week of November but has some breathing room as the pair trades close to the 1.52 line.

1.5341 is  an immediate  resistance line.

1.5269 continues to be busy and held firm last week as the pair posted gains.

1.5163 is providing support.

1.5026 is protecting the symbolic 1.50 level.

1.4856 has remained intact since April.

1.4752 is the final support level for now.

 

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

A stellar  Nonfarm Payrolls  has  increased the likelihood of a rate hike, and this week’s CPI report and Fed minutes are  market-movers  which will be  highly anticipated  by the markets.  An improvement in inflation  would  bolster the case for a rate hike in December,  and the US dollar would likely get a boost against its rivals.

In our latest podcast we discuss the December decision driving  the dollar,  declining oil and more:

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the USD to CAD forecast.