GBP/USD took a plunge last week, losing close to 400 points. The pair closed the week at 1.5151. This week’s key events are Current Account and two PMI reports. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The greenback posted sharp gains as Yellen surprised with a relatively hawkish speech, and the week ended on a positive note as Final GDP for Q2 posted a strong gain. There were no major releases out of the UK last week.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- BOE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe Speaks: Monday, 7:00. Cuncliffe will address a conference in Paris. Remarks which are more hawkish than expected are bullish for the British pound.
- Net Lending to Individuals: Tuesday, 8:30. The indicator recorded a third straight improvement in July, coming in at 3.9 billion pounds, which matched the forecast. The upswing is expected to continue in the August report, with an estimate of 4.1 billion pounds.
- CBI Realized Sales: Tuesday, 10:00. This leading indicator of consumer spending improved in August to 24 points, easily beating the estimate of 19 points. The indicator is expected to continue moving higher in September, with an estimate of 29 points.
- BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Tuesday, 19:40. Carney will speak at an event in London, and analysts will be following his remarks closely, looking for any clues regarding the BOE’s future monetary policy.
- GfK Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 23:05. Consumer confidence is closely connected to consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The indicator improved to 7 points in August, beating the forecast of 4 points. The forecast for the September report stands at 5 points.
- Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 6:00. This housing price index provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the UK housing sector. The index posted a gain of 0.3% in August, which was within expectations. Little change is expected in the September release, with an estimate of 0.4%.
- Current Account: Wednesday, 8:30. This key event should be treated as a market-mover by traders. The deficit widened in Q1 to 26.5 billion pounds, much higher than the forecast of 23.7 billion pounds. However, the deficit is expected to narrow in Q2, with the estimate standing at 22.3 billion pounds.
- Final GDP: Wednesday, 8:30. GDP is always eagerly anticipated by the markets. The indicator softened in Q1, posting a gain of 0.4%, which matched the forecast. The markets are expecting better news in Q2, with an estimate of 0.7%.
- Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 8:30. PMI reports are key events which can have a strong impact on the movement of GBP/USD. Manufacturing PMI continues to hover slightly above the 50 line, which separates between contraction and expansion. Little change is expected in the September reading, with an estimate of 51.3 points.
- Construction PMI: Friday, 8:30. This PMI posted a strong reading of 57.3 points in August, which was within expectations. Little change is expected in the September release, with an estimate of 57.5 points.
* All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5527 and quickly touched a high of 1.5151. It was all downhill for the pair throughout the week, as the pair dropped all the way to 1.5132, breaking below support at 1.5163 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.5151.
Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom
With the pound posting sharp losses, we start with resistance at 1.5590.
1.5485 was a cap in the first half of September.
1.5341 continues to be busy, and has switched to a resistance role following sharp losses by the pair.
1.5269 is a strong resistance line. It was an important support level in March.
1.5163 is a weak resistance line, and could see further action early in the week.
1.5026 has provided support since April and is the first line of support. It is protecting the symbolic line of 1.50.
1.4856 has remained intact since April.
1.4752 is the final support line for now.
I am neutral on GBP/USD.
The US dollar had its way with the pound last week – is an upward correction in the cards for the pair? The markets have not given up on a Fed rate later this year, and the dollar could jump again if there are any hints about a rate hike. The pound could recover ground if this week’s key UK releases beat expectations.
In our latest podcast we explain why the dollar defies the doves
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the USD to CAD forecast.
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