Jobless Claims refuse to go down

American unemployment claims rose from 453K to 457K – more risk aversive trading expects currency traders.

American unemployment claims disappoint once again – instead of dropping to 447K, they rose from 453K to 457K. While the gap isn’t so big, this adds to the evidence that was seen in the Non-Farm Payrolls – the American job market is recovering slowly.

Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed last week with a very small rise in the private sector. While the overall number was great, around 430K, the potion of the private sector was only 41,000, much lower than 180K that economists predicted. The government’s share was due to the decennial census, and it will drop now that the census is over.

This means that the core situation is still dire. The fresh figure from the jobless claims shows that this trend continues. Unemployment Claims continue to show high numbers. A drop below 430K weekly claims is necessary for a sustainable growth in employment.

Currency markets enjoyed a relatively calms week up to now, with good news from Australia and New Zealand, and no bad news in Europe. This helped the Euro/Dollar climb above 1.20, but it’s still below the previous support line of 1.2140, which is now a resistance line.

These bad job figures can trigger new risk aversive trading, hurting the Euro, at least it’s not the European debt problems that cause it. EUR/USD reacted with an initial dip, but is now pushing forward with a climb to 1.2100.

Tomorrow, we have retail sales and consumer confidence from the university of Michigan. The predictions for retail sales show slow growth, while consumer confidence is expected to rise nicely.

It will certainly be another interesting Friday.

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