Non-Farm Payrolls Very Weak – Dollar Drops Across the

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Non Farm Payrolls show a gain of only 39,000 jobs. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 9.8%. This isn’t good.

Initial reaction – EUR/USD rises above resistance to 1.33 in choppy trading and moves quickly to encounter the next resistance.  Update – this level is broken as well – Euro/Dollar at 1.3360.  The initial reaction is “normal” – a weaker dollar on a weak US figure. Other currencies rally against the dollar as well.

 

Euro/Dollar  is currently at 1.3330, just under the minor level of 1.3334. The next level, if this is broken, is 1.3440.

USD/JPY falls to support at around 82.87 after the release. This is a huge drop of almost 100 pips. The Japanese yen is the currency that benefits most in such cases, as it strengthens on US weakness and also enjoys a safe haven status – a status that other currencies such as the Euro don’t enjoy.

AUD/USD made a sharp move higher, but halted at the 0.9863 resistance line. It was advancing also earlier, but got a really big boost. It’s now trying to break this level.

GBP/USD is above the mighty 1.5650 resistance line, but doesn’t get so far away. The reaction in the pound is more limited.

This time, the big disappointment came from the private sector – only 50,000 jobs were gained. Expectations stood on 160,000 for this sector. One of the previous disappointments came from the government, which made huge layoffs. This time it was different.

The “real unemployment rate” counting also people that have lost hope and aren’t actively looking for a job, remains at a horrible high of 17%.

Early expectations stood on a rise of around 150K, although a figure of 200K was also mentioned several times. The unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged at 9.6%.

EUR/USD rose before the release, but its gains were limited – capped under the 1.3267 resistance line.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

6 Comments

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  3. Ironic, if you recall that last year’s November NFP was considered very strong sending the dollar higher despite being lower than last month’s, and even after it was revised to a negative number later!

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