NZD/USD Forecast Mar. 17-21 2014

The  New Zealand dollar  had an interesting week, screaming higher on the rate decision and the hawkish intent of the RBNZ. After the excitement of the rate decision, another big event is coming up: the release of quarterly GDP. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Worries about Chinese growth weighed on the antipodean currencies and the kiwi wasn’t spared. However, New Zealand is less dependent on China in comparison with Australia and the pair eventually moved higher. Not only did the central bank hike the interest rate, but it also made it clear that many more are coming. The hawkish comments sent NZD/USD to near yearly highs and the geo-political worries didn’t stop the pair.

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NZD/USD  daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Sunday, 21:00.  This 1500 strong quarterly survey conducted by Westoac has been on a gradual rise in recent quarters, climbing higher in optimistic territory. After reaching 120.1 points in Q4 2013, another small increase is likely. Note that any score above 100 reflects optimism.
2. Current Account: Tuesday, 21:45. New Zealand disappointed with a big current account deficit of 4.78 billion in Q3 2013. The late figures for Q4 2013 are expected to show a much smaller deficit (given the surplus in trade balance numbers) but not a quarterly current account surplus.
3. GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. A very strong increase of 1.4% in Gross Domestic Product was seen in Q3 2013. The last quarter of the year is also expected to show more than solid growth and support additional rate hikes.
4. Visitor Arrivals: Thursday, 21:45. Thanks to Lord of the Rings, The Hobbit and also many other natural attractions, New Zealand receives quite a handful of tourists. So, the number of visitors is important for the economy. After enjoying a growth rate of 2.6% in January, a smaller growth rate is probable for February.
5. Credit Card Spending: Friday 2:00. The usage of credit cards is quite high in New Zealand, making this a forward looking figure for the quarterly retail sales. Spending has increase 9.2% year over year in January, and similar numbers are expected for February.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar began the week capped under the round 0.85 line (mentioned last week) and above 0.8435.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The 2013 peak of 0.8676 is a strong line in the distance. It is followed by the stubborn May 2013 high of 0.8586 is another important line.

The October peak of 0.8544 is an important resistance line. 0.85 is around number and could trigger comments by policymakers. A move above this line didn’t hold in early March 2014.

0.8435  was the peak in September and was retested in January. It is a strong double top.  0.8392 served as resistance was a recurring peak between November and February.

0.8335  capped a move higher in December and also had a role in the past. The pair fell short of this line in January 2014.  Below,  0.8280  supported the pair in February 2014 and also in the past.

0.82, worked as support several times: in September, October and also in December. It is somewhat weaker now.  Close by, 0.8150 capped the pair in August and worked as support in March.

0.8060 provided support to the pair in January 2014 and is the level to watch. The round number of 0.80 doesn’t have a technical significance, but is certainly psychologically important.

I remain bullish on NZD/USD

GDP growth is likely to add to the positive tone in the kiwi after it already consolidated thanks to the worries about China. The general direction remains up. Also note the kiwi bullishness in AUD/NZD.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.