NZD/USD Outlook – August 8-12

The kiwi saw new highs, but couldn’t hold on to them, and collapsed. How will trade now? The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand house price index is the main event this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week employment data showed the market did not gain new jobs after the excellent  jump of 1.4%  reported in the first quarter and Unemployment rate remained 6.5% The reading were in line with expectations indicating a temporary stall in NZ job market.

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Let’s start

1. REINZ  House Price Index: Tuesday. Real Estate sales in New Zealand increased in June compared to a year earlier indicating a recovery in the market.  The Reinz housing price index rose by 1.3% in June following 1.8% decrease in May 4.5% below the peak. A similar rise is predicted.
2. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 22:30. New Zealand manufacturing index decreased a bit to 54.3 from54.7 in May the drop was mainly due to the strong kiwi according to economists. However exports are predicted to rise and with it manufacturing optimism indicating an ongoing improvement in NZ economy. A small drop is expected.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

The kiwi kicked off the week with a high note, reaching a new peak at 0.8843. But from there, it was all downhill. The initial fall was followed by a recovery attempt that stopped at 0.8625 (discussed last week) and from there it fell all the way to 0.8275 before bouncing back and restoring some of its losses.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

We start from a higher peak – 0.8843. It’s closely followed by 0.88 which is also distant resistance.

Below, the previous peak of 0.8675 switched positions to resistance very quickly, and is a strong line now. It is closely followed by 0.8620, which was the lower border of a temporary range. It’s a minor line.

Further support turned resistance is at 0.8580,  but managed to play in both directions during July and now as well.  It is followed by 0.8410 – a minor pivotal line.

0.83 became more distinctive a few weeks ago, by separating ranges (like the previous line), and remains of high importance. The kiwi eventually managed to get above this line.  0.8240 proved to be an important line of support.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but is now support. once again. Although it is weaker now, it can be tested if the pair falls below the aforementioned 0.8240.

Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak, and provided further support before 0.7875.

I am neutral on NZD/USD.

The employment figures failed to supply more fuel to the kiwi. And then came the global collapse, that accelerated with Trichet. While New Zealand’s fundamentals are solid, the turmoil will likely hold it down. Another moving factor, at least at the beginning of the week, is the downgrade of the US by S&P. A drop is likely at first on risk averse trade: traders will want to escape “risky assets”. On the other hand, if the US dollar sell off all over the place, the kiwi might enjoy it as well.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.