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The picture regarding the  Scottish referendum is getting muddier, if we look at the latest polls. One poll shows a clear victory for the Yes campaign, while two others go for No.

As both campaigns are mobilizing their troops in a last minute effort to swing the undecideds, markets are expected to remain jittery.

Here are the three polls:

  • The  Opinium/Observer shows a 53% / 47% lead for the No campaign when excluding the undecideds.
  • The ICM online poll for the Telegraph shows a lead of 54% / 46% for the Yes campaign.
  • A Survation poll commissioned by the No campaign shows a 54% / 46% lead for the No campaign.

Needless to say, polling companies have different methods of polling, factoring age differences, extracting answers etc. And, there is a of course a difference between a poll commissioned by a newspaper and one commissioned by one of the sides.

According to the latest odds at the bookies’, a No vote is still priced with 4.75 vs. 1.25, or around 80% of No. Here is what the odds are telling us for GBP/USD