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US Trade balance was expected to remain unchanged just below a deficit of 40 billion dollars, and jobless claims were expected to drop to 343K. So, it’s a marginal positive surprise in the trade deficit, and a small disappointment in jobless claims, but the latter data is skewed.

The dollar remains on the retreat, with EUR/USD trading above 1.38 and USD/JPY at 92.25. No big movements are seen after the publication.

Update: EUR/USD is sliding below 1.38, but isn’t going to far. USD/JPY is ticking higher. The moves are within recent ranges.

Regarding jobless claims, issues in California are still very relevant. Also the government shutdown has an impact on claims. The data is expected to be distorted for quite some time.

The US trade balance for August remains at the low levels it fell to earlier in the year. This is positive for GDP. Oil and gas production contribute to a narrowing deficit.

At 14:00, the US will a figure that usually has a significant impact: See how to trade the New Home Sales with USD/JPY.