USD/CAD Forecast April 5-9 – Canada job numbers eyed

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USD/CAD was almost unchanged last week. There are three Canadian economic releases in the upcoming week, including employment numbers. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.  
Canada’s GDP accelerated to 0.7% in January, up from 0.1% and above the estimate of 0.5%. The Raw Materials Price Index remains high, improving from 5.7% to 6.6%.
In the US, Conference Board Consumer Confidence soared to 109.7 in March, up from a revised reading of 90.4. It was the sharpest one-month gain in almost 18 years. 
US Pending Home Sales posted a second straight decline in March. The decline of 10.6% was much sharper than the estimate of -3.1%.  The week wrapped up with excellent nonfarm payroll numbers, which came in at 916 thousand. This was up from 379 thousand and crushed the estimate of 652 thousand.
USD/CAD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:
  1. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada usually posts trade deficits, so the surplus of C$1.4 billion in January was a surprise, as the forecast stood at -C$1.4 billion. Another surplus is expected in February, with an estimate of C$1.3 billion.
  2. Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The PMI pointed to sharp growth in January, jumping from 48.8 to 60.0. Another strong report is projected for March, with an estimate of 62.5.
  3. Employment Report: Friday, 12:30. After an impressive gain of 259.2 thousand new jobs in February, job creation is expected to slow to 90.0 thousand in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall from 8.2% to 8.0%.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.2869 (mentioned last week).

1.2764 is next.

1.2690 switched to resistance in mid-March, when CAD started a strong rally.

1.2581 an immediate resistance line.

1.2510 is the first support level.

1.2398 has held since mid-March.

1.2288 is the final support level for now.

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I am neutral on USD/CAD

The US economy continues to show strong signs of recovery. This could raise risk sentiment, which would make minor currencies like the Canadian dollar more attractive.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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