USD: Dollar-o-meter Still Points To USD Strength But A Peak Is Likely In Nov-Feb Period – Nordea


The US Dollar is moving forward across the board. Can this continue for a long time?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Nordea Research discusses the latest findings of its dollar-o-meter model assessment for the USD direction.

“The dollar-o-meter is a way of trying to structure four drivers of the USD. It includes the core inflation outlook, the growth outlook, monetary policy and politics. Early in 2018, all drivers were turning supportive. What do they say today?..

Euro-area core inflation disappointments and still-stellar US data have translated into a dollar-o-meter still indicating dollar strength (three out of the four variables appear supportive). We still judge that a peak in the dollar is beckoning as i) relative core inflation, ii) relative growth and iii) monetary policy (relative liquidity) will turn against the dollar around year-end, while iv) relative politics are a neutral-to-negative driver,” Nordea argues.

“We earlier anticipated a more distinct peak in the dollar in Q4, but now see it somewhat later – in the November to February period,” Nordea adds.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

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