USD: Hedge Funds On The Short Side; USD Sell-Off Begins 1-2 Months Ahead Of Fed Rate Cuts – Citi

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Markets are pricing in two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. What does it mean for the dollar?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Citi discusses the USD outlook and notes that Fed rate cut expectations are likely to keep USD on the defensive, while the greenback also faces challenges ahead of major US releases this week, including May retail sales, Industrial Production and CPI.

USD longs remain at risk, as per the CitiFX Flows & Positioning Indicator that shows leveraged (hedge fund) selling of USD.

History also shows that USD sell offs begin some 1-2 months prior to Fed rate cuts (most analysts now see the Fed cutting in July) leading to USD weakness by around 3.5% on average (so far, the USD Index (DXY) has fallen a little over 1.1%),” Citi notes.

“This week’s US May CPI is likely to garner most attention given how critical it is to Fed rate cut expectations. Citi analysts expect a solid 0.21%MoM rebound in May with weakness in transitory factors likely moderating while underlying components of inflation remain solid,” Citi adds.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.