The Canadian dollar continues to sag, losing 80 points last week. USD/CAD closed the week at 1.3464. This marked the pair’s highest weekly close in 2017. This week’s key event is Manufacturing Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market- movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The US labor picture remains rosy, and a sparking nonfarm payrolls report has virtually ensured a rate hike coming next week. Still, wage growth disappointed, falling short of the forecast. Canadian employment numbers were sharp, as employment change and the unemployment rate both beat the forecasts and pared the Canadian dollar’s losses last week.Updates:
- Mar 18, 14:24: USD/CAD: Can CAD recover from the Crude Crash?: After a long period of stability, oil prices collapsed and the Canadian dollar followed suit. We explain what happened to...
- Mar 16, 9:27: Technical levels for majors anc crosses- Ides of March edition: Currencies are on the move in the middle of March, a time to be watchful. Here are two videos discussing...
- Mar 16, 8:46: USD still weak in the morning after – updates on 7 currencies: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates as clearly telegraphed but did not alter any of its forecasts. Here are 5...
- Mar 15, 22:53: Why the dollar fell on the rate hike – 5 reasons: The Fed raised interest rates but the US dollar fell. What is going on? Sure, the hike was fully expected via clears...
- Mar 15, 22:50: Ides of March Fed decision – all the updates in one place: The Federal Reserve meets at the Ides of March to deliver its rate hike after providing us with a more-than-clear...
- Mar 15, 22:00: Upcoming events: Not only the FED: key events for all currencies: The Federal Reserve is one of 4 central banks that makes its decision in the next hours. The BOJ has...
- Mar 15, 19:00: Fed raises rates but rate forecasts unchanged – dollar dives: The Fed raises rates, leaves dot plot at 3 hikes. While more members see 3 hikes in 2017, there is...
- Mar 15, 14:52: Fed Preview: 3 scenarios for the dots that move the dollar [Video]: Expectations for the March meeting went from a non-event to certain hike. But is the Fed just “sneaking in” a...
- Mar 15, 13:30: US inflation and retail sales mostly in line with expectations – USD ticks up: Inflation and retail sales data for February leave the stage open for the Fed. Most data comes out as expected:...
- Mar 15, 12:33: Fed preview: looking for a “healthy hike” – 3 scenarios: The Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates in March. They basically laid down the message. Calling them “thick hints” would...
- Mar 13, 12:26: Fed fever and crashing crude in the Ides of March – MM #137: The rate hike is coming. But what does it mean for markets? We start with the big upcoming event and then...
- Mar 13, 0:31: The week ahead: A hawkish hike or a Yellen yawn? [Video]: After sending out the clearest messages possible, the Fed is set to raise rates for the third time in this...
USD/CAD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Foreign Securities Purchases: Thursday, 13:30. The indicator swelled to C$10.23 billion in December, but this fell short of the forecast of C$11.59 billion. The markets are expecting a downturn in January, with an estimate of C$9.45 billion.
- Manufacturing Sales: Tuesday, 00:30. This key indicator should be treated as a market-mover. In December, the indicator improved to 2.3%, beating the forecast of 1.4%. Will the upswing continue in the January report?
* All times are GMT
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.3382 and dropped to a low of 1.3371. The pair then reversed directions and climbed to a high of 1.3535, as resistance held at 1.3551 (discussed last week). USD/CAD weakened late in the week and closed at 1.3464.
Live chart of USD/CAD:
Technical lines, from top to bottom
1.3782 has held in resistance since the start of February.
1.3648 was an important support level in February.
1.3551 is the next line of resistance.
1.3457 was a high point in September 2015. The pair closed the week just above this line.
1.3351 is the next line of support.
1.3212 was a cap in the second quarter of 2016.
1.3124 is the next support level.
1.3003 is protecting the symbolic 1.30 level. It is the final support level for now.
I am bullish on USD/CAD
A rate hike in the US next week is all but assured, but the move should still reinvigorate the markets and boost the US dollar, especially against minor currencies like the Canadian dollar.
Our latest podcast is titled Fed fever and crashing crude in the Ides of March
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZDUSD forecast.