USD/CAD Outlook – August 1-5

Employment data, Building permits and Ivey PMI are the main events this week.  Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Last week  wildfires and maintenance shutdowns brought GDP down by 0.3% in May compared to April slowing mining and gas extraction. The Price of raw materials dropped unexpectedly by 2.2% and the price of finished goods declined by 0.3%. Is this only a temporary setback for the Canadian market?

Update: The Canadian dollar has been hit by global worries coming from the US and Europe. The collapse in oil prices below $90 accelerated the drops.

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

 Let’s Start:

1. Employment data: Friday, 11:00. Canada’s economy increased the number of positions in June to 28,100 while 15,000 was expected and following   22,300 new jobs in May. Unemployment rate remained stable at 7.4%. These positive readings reflect on a stronger Canadian job market although there are concerns about the US job market being in an opposite situation where unemployment is high and job creation is scarce. Employment change is expected to add 20,300 new jobs while Unemployment rate is expected to remain 7.4%.
2. Building Permits: Friday, 12:30.  Building permits flourished in May growing by 20.9% the highest level in three years after estimations of a mere 5.1% increase.  The building market recuperated from a 21.5% plunge in April with new plans for commercial buildings and residential permits. Housing prices increased in Canada above their pre-crisis peak calling for a restraint in the housing market. A drop of 4.7% is expected now.
3. Ivey PMI: Friday, 14:00. Purchasing activity in the Canada decreased in June to 68.2, fro, with69.1 in May above forecasts of 65.0 still indicating growth in the Canadian market. A rise to 62.9is predicted now.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

Dollar/CAD was on the rise in the past week. After jumping above the the 0.9450 line (discussed last week), the pair continued higher and eventually broke above 0.9520, which capped it during the week.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

Distant and minor resistance, above parity, appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011 and is still far out.  The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.

Under parity, we have two close lines – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.  Below, 0.9915 was a peak back in June and will provide some resistance on an upwards move in that direction.

0.9816 capped the pair over and over again, but after temporarily failing to hold recently. It is somewhat weaker.  0.9750 was a very distinctive line earlier, separating ranges in a great way.

0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and had an important role in holding back recovery attempts, over and over again 0.96 was a minor support line that played a role earlier in the year. After being broken, it worked very well as resistance. The same scenario repeated itself yet again, including just now.

Now under the pair, we find 0.9520. It worked as support and also as minor resistance during April. It managed to cap the recovery attempt for some time. 0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low.

The break below 0.9450 sent the pair to a new low 0.9420, which is the next and close line. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.9250 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I am neutral on USD/CAD.

With the disappointing drop in GDP in May and the weakness in the US, the Canadian economy is facing headwinds that endanger the strength of the loonie. With stable oil prices and an improving job market, the Canadian dollar can weather the storm, but will find it hard to break into new ground.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealanddollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.