USD/CAD Outlook – Jul 4-8

The Canadian dollar enjoyed rising oil prices and general optimism to make nice gains. Housing and employment data are the major events this week. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for the Canadian dollar

Last week GDP reading showed Canadian economy started Q2 with no change after a previous 0.1% decline. Canadian Dollar rose after the Greek vote but dropped again after the disappointing US unemployment reading. Will this trend continue?

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Let’s Start:

1. RMPI: Wednesday, 12:30. Canada’s raw materials price index jumped by 6.8% in April well above the 4.3% rise expected.  However the industrial product price index rose less-than-expected gaining 0.5%. A drop of -2.5% is expected now.
2. Building Permits: Wednesday, 12:30. The value of Canadian building permits dropped unexpectedly by 21.1% in April led by poor residential building activity in Ontario the most populated province of Canada. Analysts expected a 2.3% decline. An increase of 5.1% is predicted.
3. NHPI: Wednesday, 12:30. The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) increased by 0.3% in April, after a flat reading in March. The rise in prices was primarily due to higher labor and material expenses. A gain of 0.2% is forecasted now.
4. Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The Canadian Purchasing Managers index surged in May to 69.1 from 57.7 in the previous month well above forecasts for a rise to 59.1. This increase further indicated the strength of the Canadian economy. A drop to 66.3 is expected.
5. Employment data: Friday, 11:00. The Canadian economy added 22,300 new jobs in May and above the 20,000 gain expected. However this positive reading is below the 58,000 increase in April. These increases helped lower unemployment rate down to 7.4% from 7.6% in the previous month. A smaller rise of 12,700 in the number in new positions is expected with the same unemployment rate.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical  Analysis

Dollar/CAD began its descent quite slowly, but after the 0.9750 line (mentioned  last week) was broken, the falls accelerated, with the pair challenging the low support line of 0.96

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.02 is a very far line in the distance, but a rise could make it relevant. Still distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011.

The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.  Under parity, we have two close lines – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.

The 2009 low of 0.9930 is just beneath, now weaker than earlier, but getting very close now 0.9816 capped the pair over and over again, but after temporarily failing to hold now, it is somewhat weaker.

0.9750 was a very distinctive line earlier, separating ranges in a great way. The break below this line pushed the pair significantly lower. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and had an important role in holding back recovery attempts.

0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently and was critical towards the close. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I am bearish on USD/CAD.

The  improvement seen in the US is good for Canada. In addition, the  hopes from Greece push oil prices higher, and this also aids the loonie.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.
• USD/CAD  (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.