USD/CAD Outlook – June 20-24

The Canadian dollar retreated against the greenback due to the global turmoil and falling oil prices. Retail sales figures are the top event this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian trading events, and an updated technical analysis for the Canadian dollar

The Canadian Dollar dropped to a three month low vs. the U.S dollar as a result of deterioration in the Greek debt crisis declining against 15 countries although improving a bit amid A big bulk of encouraging US figures arrived on Thursday last week. Will the Greek crisis further impair the global economy?

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Let’s Start:

1. Mark Carney speaks: Monday, 17:00. The Governor of the BOC is scheduled to speak in Ottawa. He may hint on a possible rate hike.
2. Retail sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Retail sales were flat in March dropping by 0.9 % in from February below the 0.9% increase expected by analysts. Excluding the automobile sector, retail sales decreased by 0.1%. These weak figures together with lower than expected inflation rates reduced the need of the BOC to raise interest rates. Retail sales are expected to gain 0.7% and Core sales are predicted 0.5% rise.
3. Leading Index: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada’s composite index increased by 0.8% in April above the 0.5% predicted by analysts. The rise was led by growth in  Exports expanding the manufacturing sector. A lower gain of 0.6% is expected now.
4. John Murray speaks: Thursday 13:15 and 18:45. BOC Deputy Governor John Murray will give two speeches on Thursday. His words could provide info regarding future monetary policy.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical  Analysis

The loonie had a strong opening to the week, gaining against the greenback and bouncing perfectly off the 0.9667 support line (discussed last week). The rest was different. After piercing through 0.9750, it even touched 0.99 before closing just under 0.98 and the 0.9816 line.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.02 is a very far line in the distance, but a rise could make it relevant. Still distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011.

The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.  Under parity, we have two close lines – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.

The 2009 low of 0.9930 is just beneath, now weaker than earlier, but getting very close now 0.9816 capped the pair over and over again, but after temporarily failing to hold now, it is somewhat weaker.

0.9750 was a very distinctive line earlier, separating ranges in a great way. It is now somewhat weaker than beforehand, but provides support. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and has a more important role now.

0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I am neutral on USD/CAD.

While the Canadian economy is relatively strong, it will find it hard to keep up as the US economy is slowing down. In addition, the recent drop in oil prices, also weighs on the loonie.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.
• USD/CAD  (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.