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Capacity Utilization Rate and Mark Carney’s speech are the highlight of this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian employment sector increased by 22,300 jobs in May in line with expectations while the unemployment rate fell further from 7.6% to 7.4% weakening the USD/CAD. Will the Canada’s recovery continue to outrun the US market?  Let’s Start:

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:Canadian dollar chart June 13 17 2011

  1. Capacity Utilization Rate: Monday, 13:30. Canada’s industrial capacity use increased by 0.2% to 76.4% while economists expected a rise to 79.1%. This is the sixth consequent increase although it I slower than the 90% levels seen before 2008. The increase indicates inflationary pressures are forming and may force rate hikes. Another increase to 76.8% is expected.
  2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 13:30. New vehicles sold in March increased by 2.0% from February reaching 135,261. Car sales gained 2.7%. Trucks increased by 1.4%. A smaller increase of 1.8% is predicted.
  3. Mark Carney speaks: Tuesday, 20:50. Mark Carney BOC governor is scheduled to speak in Vancouver. His words may provide info regarding future monetary policy.
  4. Manufacturing Sales: Wednesday, 13:30. Canadian manufacturing sales gained 1.9% in March indicating stronger-than-expected economic growth in the 1st quarter rising 1.9%. The manufacturing sector was the weakest segment in the Canadian economy recovery and the latest figures confirm an upbeat trend for the Canadian economy. A drop of 2.1% is forecasted.
  5. Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 13:30. Foreigners increased their purchases of Canadian bonds in March buying C$6.3 billion ($6.5 billion) worth of Canadian securities following C$2.47 billion in bonds in February. Foreign investors increased their purchases in light of Canada’s robust recovery since the economic crisis.  A decrease to C$5.45 billion is predicted.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical  Analysis

The loonie strengthened against the greenback at the beginning of the week, but then reversed this move, and this action in the 0.9750 to 0.9816 range (which worked also previously) continued throughout most of the week, until the pair closed just under 0.98.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.02 is a very far line in the distance, but a rise could make it relevant. Still distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011.

The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.  Under parity, we have two close lines – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.

The 2009 low of 0.9930 is just beneath, now weaker than earlier.  0.9816 capped the pair over and over again, and  it remains an important line of resistance,which will cap any upside movements.

0.9750 was a very distinctive line in the past week, separating ranges in a great way. It is now somewhat weaker than beforehand. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and has a more important role now.

0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

As we’ve just seen with fresh employment data, the Canadian economy continues to thrive, even though its important trade partner, the US, is slowing down. These is room for falls in USD/CAD, although more drops in oil prices counter this.

FX Tech Strategy sees USD/CAD consolidating.

Further reading:


 

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