The Swiss franc took a break from its recent huge rally against the US dollar, showing little change on the week. There are four releases in the upcoming week. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.
USD/CHF has been trading in range, mirroring euro/dollar. The markets continue to wait for a deal with Greece, as the crisis in Europe continues. This past week saw a break in the action, as the Euro and franc rallies against the dollar ground to a halt.
Updates: EUR/CHF has more breathing space above 1.20, and this allows USD/CHF to rise as Greek troubles intensify. Thomas Jordan from the SNB repeated the bank’s commitment to guard the 1.20 line in EUR/CHF while foreign exchange reserves dropped to 227.2 billion. USD/CHF is under 0.92 as news from Greece are awaited. The Swiss authorities continue to show determination regarding the 1.20 floor under EUR/CHF. The recent Greek progress certainly helped lift EUR/CHF, and weakened USD/CHF. Swiss unemployment rate remained at 3.1%. Troubles in Greece push the dollar higher, and USD/CHF is at 0.9140 once again.
USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- Foreign Currency Reserves: Monday, 8:00. This indicator provides analysts with important information regarding the EUR/CHF exchange rate. Traders should note that a lower indicator is bullish for the franc. The indicator rose last month, and a further increase could push to Swiss currency downward.
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Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 6:45. This indicator usually hovers at 3% or 3.1%, and and thus has little impact on the currency markets. However, an unexpected deviation in the reading could impact on the Swiss franc.
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SECO Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:45. This quarterly indicator surveys households for their opinions on economic conditions. As such, it is an important indicator of consumer confidence, which is critical for economic growth. In November, the indicator recorded its lowest reading since 2009. The markets are predicting another very poor readi in January.
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CPI: Friday, 8:15. The main inflation index has shown little volatility over the past few months, and not much change is predicted for the January reading. Although the CPI index is not showing much movement of late, traders should keep an eye on it, as any unexpected numbers could result in a reaction by the markets.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/CHF traded in a narrow range this week. The pair opened at 0.9133, and reached a high of 92.50., The low for the week was 91.14. Dollar/franc closed the week at 0.9157, as the line of 0.9165 (discussed last week) remains a line of weak resistance.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
With the franc taking a breather from its torrid rise against the dollar, the resistance and support levels remained largely intact this past week. We begin with 0.9780, a strong resistance line, last tested by the pair in February 2011. Below, is a resistance line at 0.9636. This is followed by 0.9510, which was tested earlier this month, and is providing strong resistance. Below, is the line of 0.9412, which earlier in the month was acting as support, and is now in a resistance role. Next, is the weak line of 0.9306, which was breached last week during the franc’s rally. It is now providing resistance to the pair. This is followed by a weak resistance level at 0.9250. It was touched by the pair this week, and could be tested on any recovery by the dollar.
The line of 0.9165 was breached this week, but continues to providing weak resistance for the pair. Next, 0.9085, which was a strong support level in mid-October, could be tested by the pair on a further downswing. The psychologically important round figure of 0.90 is providing strong support for now. Next, 0.89 is a strong support level. This is followed by 0.8850, which was last tested in November and is providing the pair with major support. The final support line for now is 0.8768.
I am neutral on USD/CHF.
After an outstanding January, the pair traded in range this week. Although the forecast for the Swiss economy continues to look cloudy, the franc showed surprising strength in January. Will the swissie continue its rally, or will we see a correction and rebound by the greenback?
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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