USD/CHF Outlook July 16-20

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After last week’s slump, the Swiss franc was unchanged against the dollar, as USD/CHF closed just shy of the 0.98 line, at 0.9798. The upcoming week has only two releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

With the turmoil continuing in the Euro-zone and a mix of data out of the US, the swissie managed to hold its against the greenback. The Swiss currency was also supported by some recent releases, such as strong retail sales and a lower unemployment rate.

Updates: There are no scheduled releases until Wednesday. The Swiss franc has weakened to start the trading week, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9854. The swissie improved amid talk of possible monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9778. ZEW Economic Expectations plunged to a six-month low of -42.5 points. The indicator, based on a survey of analysts and investors, indicates deep pessimism about the Swiss economy. The swissie lost ground following the weak release, as USD/CHF pushed above the 0.98 line, trading at 0.9818. The Trade Balance surplus narrowed in June, but the reading was above the market forecast. The surplus came in at CHF 2.25 billion, slightly better than the estimate of 2.21B. The Swiss franc was slightly higher, as USD/CHF was trading at 0.9764.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

  1. ZEW Economic Expectations: Wednesday,9:00. Economic Expectations looked awful in June, with a reading of -43 points. Will the indicator rebound in July?
  2. Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. The Trade Balance surplus widened in June, with a reading of 2.48 billion. The market estimate for July calls for a drop to 2.21B.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9788, and touched a low of 0.9737, as the support line of 0.9719 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair then moved upwards, reaching a high of 0.9873. USD/CHF closed the week at 0.9798, virtually unchanged.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance at 1.0368. This line was last tested in August 2010, when the Swiss franc dropped sharply. The next resistance line is at 1.0220. This is followed by 1.0136, which has held firm since September 2010. Next, there is resistance at 1.0066, which was last tested in November 2010.

This is followed by parity, which continues to be a strong line of resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915. Below is 0.9783, which breached by the pair on its upwards swing. The line is now providing the pair with weak support, and could be tested again this week by USD/CHF.

The next level of support is at 0.9719, which held firm this week. This is followed by 0.9584, which continues to provide the pair with support. The next support level is 0.9510, which saw some movement earlier in July.

The next support level is at 0.9412. Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since May. The final support level for now is 0.9250.

I am bullish on USD/CHF.

The dollar has gained ground on the swissie in July, and this trend continued until the dollar dropped at the end of the week. Given the troubles in Europe and the global slowdown, investors will likely be drawn to the safety of the US dollar, unless there is some unusually strong Swiss economic data.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.