USD/CHF Outlook July 9-13

The Swiss franc  dropped sharply during  the week, as USD/CHF  climbed about three cents, closing at 0.9769. The upcoming week is very quiet, with only two releases. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

With weak employment figures out of the US,  the weak US  recovery  continues to worry the market.  Investors responded by snapping up US dollars, as the currency is considered a safe haven. As well, the swissie followed the euro, which slumped following the EBC interest rate cut.

Updates: The Unemployment Rate dropped to 2.9%, catching the markets by surprise. The estimate stood at 3.2%. The last time unemployment fell below the 3% level was in February 2009. The swissie had  dropped  close to the 0.98 line in Asian trading, but has  improved. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9769. With the Eurogroup finance minsters meeting in Brussels, the markets have been cautious. USD/CHF edged downwards, and was trading at 0.9752. USD/CHF is showing little movement, as the markets wait  for the release of the minutes of most recent Federal Reserve policy meeting. The pair was trading at 0.97771. The markets are waiting for the PPI release on Friday. The swissie dropped sharply following the news that the Federal Reserve was not planning any monetary easing to help the US economy. USD/CHF was trading at 0.9852.

USD/CHF daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:    

  1. Unemployment Rate: Monday, 5:45. The Unemployment Rate tends to show little movement from month to month. The June reading came in at 3.2%, and no change is expected in the July release.  
  2. PPI: Friday, 7:15. The inflation indication has been below zero for the past two readings, indicating weaker activity in the manufacturing sector. The markets are forecasting a rebound in July, with an estimate of a 0.3% increase.

*All times are GMT

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

USD/CHF opened the week at 0.9496, and touched a low of 0.9484. The pair then  moved upwards, reaching  a high of 0.9784, a notch above the resistance line of 0.9783 (discussed last week). USD/CHF closed the week at 0.9769.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the strong surge by the greenback, we begin at higher levels.  There is strong resistance at  1.0368. This line was last tested in August 2010, when the Swiss franc dropped sharply. The next resistance line is at 1.0220. This is followed by 1.0136, which has held firm since September 2010. Next, there is resistance at 1.0066. This line has not been tested since November 2010.

This is followed by parity, which continues to be a strong line of resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9915. Below is 0.9783, which was tested this week and remains a line of weak resistance. This line had held firm since last January, but look for it to be tested if the dollar continues to push upwards.

Close by, the pair is receiving weak support at 0.9719, as  USD/CHF easily breached  this line on its upward swing.  This is followed by  0.9584, which has switched to a support role. It has strengthened as the pair trades at higher levels The next support level is 0.9510. This  line saw action last week,  but is now providing strong support.  

The next support level is at 0.9412. Below, there is strong support at 0.9317, which has held firm since May. The final support level for now is at 0.9250, which has held firm since early May.

I am  neutral on USD/CHF.

The dollar took full advantage against the  Swiss franc  over market as US numbers were weak and the ECB slashed interest rates.  Will the rally continue? Some stronger economic data out of Switzerland or the US could reverse the Swiss currency’s slump, but absent this, the swissie could continue to display weakness.

Further reading:

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.