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The US dollar is slightly weaker, struggling after another weak figure: durable goods orders. Yet the big event is still ahead: a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

So far, Yellen has been quite hawkish. Not only did the Fed raise rates, but they also expressed optimism on growth and jobs. More importantly, the FOMC and especially Yellen dismissed lower inflation. It is due to one-off factors according to the central bank.

Update: Yellen does not help the dollar.

Her stance was echoed by Bill Dudley, No. 3 at the Fed. He was known as a dove and expressed, even more, optimism than the Fed Chair.

However, other Fed officials have cast doubts about the direction of inflation. Kashakri dissented, but he is a known dove. Evans is also in the dovish camp, but his comments about Amazon pushing prices lower were quite telling. And Harker, a known hawk, even considered waiting with the move  to reduce the balance sheet.

Yellen makes a key speech

It is now time for No. 1 at the Fed to speak up. We haven’t heard from her since the post-rate decision speech. She now goes to the British Academy in London and will speak her mind, at 17:00 GMT.

Will she acknowledge that inflation is not going anywhere fast? On Friday, the US releases the Fed’s favorite inflation figure, the Core PCE Price Index for May. We already know it will be weaker than the previous month, given the release of the Core CPI. Yellen may already have the data.

And what about other factors? The data published since the Fed decision has not been looking that great.

Will she express worries? If so, the greenback could fall.

Yet if she repeats the “transitory nature” of lower inflation, there is room for recovery.

What do you think?