Category: EUR/USD Daily

Why EUR/USD Parity looks more real, and that GDP Now – ING



EUR/USD managed to print some sort of stability after the big fall from the highs. However, the reason for the fall could continue weighing heavily on the common currency.

The team at ING discusses the pair, parity and the US GDP Now model:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

“With the initial estimate for 2Q US GDP not scheduled for release until 30 July (one day after the July FOMC meeting), we may well need to rely on an array of indicators to form an accurate depiction of the US economy and hence the outlook for monetary policy.

As such, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model – which provides a real-time estimate for the current quarter GDP figure based on the results of key monthly indicators – has been gaining some popularity…Based on the string of 2Q data releases so far, the GDPNow model suggests that we shouldn’t be too hopeful of a considerable rebound in the current quarter, with the latest update on 19 May “nowcasting” a figure near 0.7% QoQ annualised growth.

US GDP nowcast a function of data surprises May 2015 ING

While the latest “nowcast” only points to a meagre 0.7% growth in 2Q15, our analysis suggests that there is still scope for the rest of the data releases covering the months of May and June to positively contribute to growth. Given the increased sensitivity of USD crosses to relative data surprises, the currency would certainly benefit from a string of positive 2Q data releases, with added scope for gains in light of the (i) recent trimming of long USD positions, (ii) dovish market pricing of Fed rate hikes and (iii) softer expectations for US data prints. Moreover, the ECB’s plan to frontload QE purchases ahead of the mid-July drop in market liquidity is likely to keep EUR/USD anchored around current levels and therefore buys some time for US data outcomes to turn the corner. This is a significant development in the context of our EUR/USD 6M parity call.”

Viraj Patel – ING

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EUR Rates Hit Fresh Lows Below Zero – RBS

EUR Rates Hit Fresh Lows Below Zero – RBS

EUR/USD managed to somewhat stabilize after the big falls, but we have to note the background; an ongoing drop in rates, and now below zero. The team at RBS sheds some light on this phenomenon: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Cash rates in the Eurozone have continued to sink below zero to new record

EUR/USD: Get Ready For The ‘Divergence Lite’ Trade? – Deutsche Bank

EUR/USD: Get Ready For The ‘Divergence Lite’ Trade? – Deutsche Bank

EUR/USD continues sliding from the highs. Can this continue even lower? What are the drivers behind the move? The team at Deutsche Bank examines the “divergence lite” trade: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: “It would need both ECB and Fed to be driving divergence to generate a repeat of the unusually speedy EUR/USD

EUR/USD: Sell Bounces; USD/JPY: Add To Longs – BofA Merrill

EUR/USD: Sell Bounces; USD/JPY: Add To Longs – BofA Merrill

As the USD continues strengthening quite strongly, what are the next possible traders? The team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees more dollar opportunities: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: EUR/US has broken below the confluence of near term support at 1.1165/1.1131 (2m, old channel resistance, now support and the May-11 low), notes Bank of

EUR: An Attractive Selling Territory – Credit Agricole

EUR: An Attractive Selling Territory – Credit Agricole

EUR/USD continues falling (here are 3 technical reasons) and there could be more to come. The team at Credit Agricole sees the pair at an attractive selling territory: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The single currency continued to correct higher for most of last week. It appears that further stabilising inflation expectations have been

EUR/USD hits double top resistance as USD bulls lose confidence

EUR/USD hits double top resistance as USD bulls lose confidence

EUR/USD stopped just shy of the 1.1450 resistance line. The line worked to limit euro/dollar moves in the past and is now serving as the top for the pair in two consecutive days. Will this be established as even stronger resistance or can the pair make another move higher towards the round level of 1.15? EUR/USD

Is It Time For Tactical USD Shorts? – MS

Is It Time For Tactical USD Shorts? – MS

The US dollar suffered another setback this week with the blow it received from the retail sales report. Can this blow be more significant? The team at Morgan Stanley examine tactical USD shorts: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: In its weekly FX note to clients, Morgan Stanley updates its thoughts on the current USD correction,

How To Play The Euro Now? – SoGen

How To Play The Euro Now? – SoGen

EUR/USD has been on a roll, reaching almost 1.1450 before consolidating its gains. What’s next for the world’s most popular currency pair? Kit Juckes from SocGen explains: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: “Soft US data and the rise of the 10yr Bund yield above 70bp are undermining the dollar and supporting the euro. EUR/USD

EUR/USD could reach another high soon before falling, EUR/JPY to follow – Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/USD could reach another high soon before falling, EUR/JPY to follow – Elliott Wave Analysis

The USD did not move much yesterday, so for now we see no changes on EURUSD. The price could still make another high soon, to complete a five wave move within a fifth wave. That said, a reversal down from the new high could follow in the sessions ahead, especially if stocks continue higher. EURUSD

USD Index Weakness Giving Bullish Support To EURUSD – Elliott Wave Analysis

USD Index Weakness Giving Bullish Support To EURUSD – Elliott Wave Analysis

The USD index fell to a new low as shown on the 4h chart below, which means that USD bulls are not here yet, but we see the market in the fifth wave. However, a fifth wave is also an impulsive leg so it must be made by five smaller waves before we can expect