Category: EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Sep. 2 – Escapes the lows as the US gets back in the game



EUR/USD dipped just a bit lower and touched a new low of .13113 before returning a bit higher, but it is still marking a lower high. As US traders return to the scene, tensions are mounting both in Ukraine and regarding the ECB meeting on Thursday. In the former, NATO is gearing up in Eastern Europe and Merkel accepts economic suffering in return for stopping aggression. In the latter, it seems that France and Germany want different things from Draghi.

 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.

  • EUR/USD dropped a bit lower in the range before stabilizing.
  • Current range: 1.31 to 1.3150.

Further levels in both directions:

EURUSD September 2 2014 technical 1h chart for currency trading euro dollar

  • Below: 1.31 1.3050, 1.30 and 1.2940.
  • Above: 1.3150, 1.3175, 1.3220 and 1.3295.
  • 1.3150 switches to resistance after the downfall on Friday.
  • 1.3112 is the new low, but real support is at the round number of 1.31.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Exp. +25.5K, actual +8.1K.
  • 9:00 Euro-zone PPI. Exp. 0%.
  • 13:45 US Final Markit Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 58 points.
  • 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57 points. See how to trade the figure with USDJPY.
  • 14:00 US Construction Spending. Exp. +0.9%.
  • 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Exp. 46.2 points.

*All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Stronger rhetoric regarding Ukraine: After stronger rhetoric from some Eastern European leaders over the weekend, and the word “statehood” from Putin, we now heard from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that said that paying an economic price is a small price and that changing borders in Europe is unacceptable. US President Obama is visiting Estonia today on the background of a NATO task force that is sent to defend Eastern European countries. Ukraine is not a NATO member.
  • Pressure on Draghi: Tensions is mounting towards the rate decision on Thursday. Will Draghi announce QE or just hint about an upcoming announcement? Will there be more cuts in the rock bottom interest rates? Expectations stand on more words but no new action. France wants Draghi to weaken the euro while Germany was reportedly unhappy with his comments in Jackson Hole – comments that implied more action.
  • First NFP hint: The US returns from the long weekend and the manufacturing figure is the first hint for Friday’s big event. See how to trade the ISM Manufacturing PMI with USDJPY. We will get more data later in the week. While US traders certainly contribute to action, the focus is currently on Europe.

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EUR/USD Sep. 1 – Remains on the floor Ukraine news weighs

EUR/USD Sep. 1 – Remains on the floor Ukraine news weighs

EUR/USD started the new month after the summer vacations with yet another dip, following the downfall seen last week and that accelerated in the late hours. However, the pair managed to stabilize. In the euro-zone, we have more PMIs today and in the US we have the Labor Day holiday. The news from Ukraine continues to dominate

Euro-zone inflation falls to 0.3%, core +0.9% – EUR/USD recovers

Euro-zone inflation falls to 0.3%, core +0.9% – EUR/USD recovers

It could be worse: while headline CPI dropped to only 0.3% in the euro-zone, core inflation is rising off the bottom with +0.9%, better than 0.8% expected. The unemployment rate in the euro-zone stands at 11.5%. EUR/USD is now moving towards 1.32 as expectations for immediate action next week have faded away. Nevertheless, as deflationary pressures

EUR/USD Aug. 28 – Almost closes the gap ahead of busy day

EUR/USD Aug. 28 – Almost closes the gap ahead of busy day

EUR/USD managed to recover back to the top of the range, riding on the sell off of the dollar, a move that looks like a necessary correction. A busy day awaits traders on both sides of the Atlantic with German inflation numbers and the second estimate of US GDP. Will EUR/USD break higher or could it bounce

EUR/USD Aug. 27 – Marks lower range in ongoing erosion

EUR/USD Aug. 27 – Marks lower range in ongoing erosion

EUR/USD is getting comfortable in a lower range below 1.3175, after yet another slide. It seems there is no mercy for the pair. After seeing very strong consumer confidence from the US yesterday was the latest excuse to buy the greenback. Today’s light calendar also supports that direction, with more disappointments from Germany. What’s next?  Here

EUR/USD Aug. 26 – “dead cat bounce” move fails to close the gap

EUR/USD Aug. 26 – “dead cat bounce” move fails to close the gap

EUR/USD is trading under 1.32 once again. The pair bounced off low support and attempted a recovery. However, it was unable to close the gap, despite some weak US data. Today we have quite a few important US indicators.  Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair. EUR/USD recovered and reached 1.3214. It did not

EUR/USD gaps lower, close to low support

EUR/USD gaps lower, close to low support

There’s no mercy for euro/dollar: another dollar storm that originated in digesting the Jackson Hole news resulted in a Sunday gap. The open gap serves as a bearish sign. EUR/USD hit 1.32 and fell below this line, to a new 11 month low. The pair hesitated above low support but the bounce from the lows didn’t

EUR/USD Aug. 22 – Off the lows ahead of Yellen’s all important speech

EUR/USD Aug. 22 – Off the lows ahead of Yellen’s all important speech

EUR/USD is trading towards the upper end of the tight range that characterizes it towards the all-important Jackson Hole Symposium in which both heads of central banks give important speeches. How will EUR/USD look like after Yellen and Draghi take the stage? Is a dovish Yellen already priced in? Update: Yellen provides no new message – USD stronger

EUR/USD – Steady on Mixed Euro PMIs

EUR/USD – Steady on Mixed Euro PMIs

EUR/USD continues to trade at low levels on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.32 range. The euro has lost over 100 points this week and finds itself at its lowest level since September 2013. On the release front, a host of Euro PMIs painted a mixed picture, with German figures beating their estimates. It’s a busy day in the US, with two

EUR/USD Aug. 20 – Slide Continues as Markets Eye Fed Minutes

EUR/USD Aug. 20 – Slide Continues as Markets Eye Fed Minutes

EUR/USD has weakened on Wednesday, as the pair trades below the 1.33 line. The euro has surrendered about 100 points so far this week, and has fallen to its lowest level since September 2013. It’s a quiet day on the release front, highlighted by the Federal Reserve minutes. In the Eurozone, German numbers continue to struggle, as PPI came in at -0.1%, shy of the estimate of