Category: EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD Daily April 23 – Solid PMIs Push Euro Higher



EUR/USD is pointing higher on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.38 range in the European session. In economic news, Eurozone and German PMIs beat the forecast, but French PMIs missed expectations. In the US, today’s highlight is New Home Sales. The markets are expecting the indicator to improve in March.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session, closing at 1.3820. The pair is moving higher in the European session.

Current range: 1.3800 to 1.3830.

Further levels in both directions:  EURUSD Daily Forecast Apr 23nd

  • Below: 1.38, 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and 1.3580.
  • Above: 1.3830, 1.3895, 1.3964 and 1.40.
  • 1.3830 has switched to a support role. The round number of 1.38 follows.
  • 1.3895 is the next resistance line.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 51.9, actual 50.9 points.
  • 7:00 French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 51.5, actual 50.3 points.
  • 7:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.9, actual 54.2 points.
  • 7:30 German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 53.5, actual 55.0 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.0, actual 53.0 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Exp. 52.7, actual 53.1 points.
  • 13:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.2 points.
  • 14:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 455K.
  •  14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 2.6M.

*All times are GMT

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • PMIs highlight French/German divide: After an extended Easter holiday, there was plenty of numbers to crunch out of the Eurozone. German and Eurozone PMIs beat their estimates, while the French releases missed their estimates and weakened in March. The data highlights the French Services and Manufacturing PMIs remain slightly above the 50-point level, indicative of expansion.  
  • Eurozone inflation a sore spot: Eurozone inflation indicators continue to point to weak inflation, with no end in sight. German PPI posted a decline of -0.3%, its worst showing since December 2012. Final inflation data for March came out slightly lower than expected. While headline inflation was confirmed at 0.5%, the lowest since 2009, core inflation was downgraded to 0.7%, matching the low level seen in late 2013, which was the post-crisis low. The ECB has downplayed the danger of deflation, but Mario Draghi may have to take some action to try and raise inflation in the hope of stimulating the lackluster Eurozone economy.
  • No worries over US inflation: The Eurozone is having a tough time with a lack of inflation, but in the US, it’s a different story. US core inflation actually rose to 1.7%, exactly in Goldilocks territory: there is no deflation danger and quite far from heating inflation, despite a bloated balance sheet at the Federal Reserve. The House Price Index rose a respectable 0.6% in March, matching the forecast.
  • Markets hopeful for spring thaw: After a harsh US winter which took a toll on the economy, April figures have been encouraging. Recent job figures have been solid and retail sales exceeded expectations. An outstanding reading from the Philly Fed Index, has added to the hopes of a serious spring bounce. Existing Home Sales beat the estimate, and the markets will be looking for more positive housing data from New Home Sales on Thursday.
  • Ukraine crisis escalates: The markets haven’t reacted to events in Ukraine so far, but that could change if the violence in the east of the country worsens. Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to act on his “right” to invade Ukraine, and has also given the country an ultimatum regarding its gas debt. The gas supply from Russia to western Europe is in danger, and if the situation spills out of control, we could see a sharp response from the markets. US Vice-President Joe Biden is in Kiev for a symbolic visit. The West doesn’t have many cards to play against Russia, so every move by Putin will be scrutinized and could impact on the markets.

More: Forex Markets Likely to Goad ECB into Action

EUR/USD April 22 – Hugging 1.38 in Quiet Trade

EUR/USD April 22 – Hugging 1.38 in Quiet Trade

EUR/USD is steady on Tuesday, trading close to the 1.38 line in the European session. The pair is not showing much movement as the European markets return to action following a long Easter holiday. On the release front, Consumer Confidence is the sole Eurozone event. Today’s major US release is Existing Home Sales. The indicator has

EUR/USD April 21 – Drifting higher in slow holiday trade

EUR/USD April 21 – Drifting higher in slow holiday trade

EUR/USD started off the trading week with a slow grind higher. Most markets are on a long Easter holiday. The tension remains high in Ukraine, but this does not seem to affect markets too much. Will the low volume result in surprising moves? Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment

EURUSD: Faces Bear Threats After the Easter Break

EURUSD: Faces Bear Threats After the Easter Break

EURUSD: With the pair closing lower the past week, a continuation of that weakness is envisaged in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3779 level where a break will aim at the 1.3737 level followed by the 1.3676 level. Further down, support stands at the 1.3600 level where a violation will target the 1.3550

EURUSD flat markets ahead of easter, but gearing up for downward movement

EURUSD flat markets ahead of easter, but gearing up for downward movement

It seems the markets have taken pause ahead of the Easter break, there isn’t much activity across the currencies as most markets remain flat with the weekly candles showing indecision. These stale, low volatility markets can be frustrating for traders but it’s where you must demonstrate the highest levels of discipline. EURUSD very flat at

EUR/USD April 17 – Euro Firm After Yellen Comments

EUR/USD April 17 – Euro Firm After Yellen Comments

EUR/USD has moved higher on Thursday, as the euro continues to take advantage of dovish comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday. The pair is trading in the mid-1.38 range in the European session. Today’s sole Eurozone release, German PPI, declined last month, as Eurozone inflation indicators remain weak. In the US, we’ll get a look at

EUR/USD Apr. 16 – Recovers despite soft inflation, ahead of US housing data

EUR/USD Apr. 16 – Recovers despite soft inflation, ahead of US housing data

EUR/USD managed to stage a gradual recovery reconquering the 1.3830 line. Less than impressing inflation figures from the euro-zone capped further significant advances. A wide range of FOMC speakers, including Yellen, as well as US housing data will set the tone later in the day. Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and

EUR/USD April 15 – Dips below 1.38 ahead of key German figure, Yellen

EUR/USD April 15 – Dips below 1.38 ahead of key German figure, Yellen

EUR/USD continues sliding, following the gap lower in the wake of the new week. The comments from Draghi tying the exchange rate to monetary policy still echo and markets are still digesting the US retail sales number. Was it good enough? There is no rest for markets, as the German ZEW figure is coming soon, as

Look out for buy signals from support on the EURUSD

Look out for buy signals from support on the EURUSD

Last week we seen the EURUSD rally explosively into higher prices and break through the previous swing high. Friday produced an inspection candle as the upward momentum stalled. We know markets don’t move in one direction like this, so we can expect a retracement to occur soon. The market has opened up this week gapping

EUR/USD April 11 – Tops 1.39 as dollar sell off continues

EUR/USD April 11 – Tops 1.39 as dollar sell off continues

No mercy for the US dollar. EUR/USD continues higher and has already topped 1.39. The pair continues in the same pattern of rising, pausing and continuing higher, without any real pullbacks. The dovish FOMC minutes continue weighing and the rise of the euro continues despite unimpressive inflation numbers from the old continent. To close the week we