Category: EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD: No Defying Parity; New Targets – BNPP



Euro/dollar lost around 20% from the highs in early May. After the recent drop, has it found a bottom?

Not yet. The team at BNP Paribas revised the targets to the downside.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

The speed of EUR/USD’s decline since the start of the year is causing investors to question the size, direction and catalyst for the next EUR move, notes BNP Paribas.

Real yields should continue to move against the EUR:

“The ECB’s quantitative easing programme exceeded the markets’ high expectations…So far, however, the follow-through from higher inflation expectations has been lacklustre, with the 5y5y breakeven inflation rate falling to around 1.60 after rising above 1.80 in the aftermath of the ECB announcement,” BNPP adds.

“Nevertheless, we would highlight that the move higher of this measure is likely to be gradual as QE feeds through to the real economy, rather than a knee jerk reaction. As a result, our forecasts indicate gradual declining real yield support for EURUSD,” BNPP argues.

eurozone US real rate spreads have increased but are poised to decline

Positioning analysis indicates scope for further EUR shorts over the medium-term:

“The speed at which short EUR positioning has increased suggests that there may be room for short-term profit taking. However, from a longer-term perspective, bearish EUR positioning does not yet appear to be extreme. In particular, the ‘client exposure’ component of our analysis has a score of only -8,” BNPP notes.

“We view that with FX investors appearing to hold light bearish EUR positioning, there is scope for the EUR to be sold on rallies,” BNPP argues.

ECB QE to encourage further debt outflows:

“Looking ahead, we expect the trend of debt outflows to accelerate as ECB QE weighs on real yields,” BNPP projects.

In line with this view, BNPP revised its EUR/USD targets to 1.13 by end of Q1, 1.10 by end of Q2, 1.08, by end of Q3, 1.05 by end of Q4 and to 1.00 by end Q1 of 2016. 

For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus

By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.

EUR/USD Correction Drawing To A Close: Levels & Targets – BofA Merrill

EUR/USD Correction Drawing To A Close: Levels & Targets – BofA Merrill

EUR/USD had some kind of correction after the big blow form the ECB and the smaller blow from Greece. However, the team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees the end of this correction. Here are charts and levels: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: For the past few days, EUR/USD has been correcting

USD Super Cycle Intact; Sell EUR/USD Rebounds targeting 1.09 – Morgan Stanley

USD Super Cycle Intact; Sell EUR/USD Rebounds targeting 1.09 – Morgan Stanley

The US dollar took a hit on the weak durable goods orders numbers, and could not recover on strong numbers from new home sales and consumer confidence. However, the team at Morgan Stanley sees the super cycle of the strengthening dollar intact, and suggests selling rebounds on EUR/USD: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Past USD

EUR/USD forms triple top – and breaks higher

EUR/USD forms triple top – and breaks higher

EUR/USD managed to recover from two consecutive blows: the bigger one coming from the ECB and the second one from the elections in Greece. However, all the bounces seem to meet the same resistance line, in what turns out to be a key battle. Update: the pair eventually pushed through and jumped higher. The peak so

Marking To Market EUR/USD Projections Post-ECB – BofA Merrill

Marking To Market EUR/USD Projections Post-ECB – BofA Merrill

While the outcome of the Greek elections was more or less priced in by markets, the heavy hand of the ECB is set to weigh. The team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch lower the EUR/USD forecasts: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Following the aggressive ECB action, Bank of America Merrill Lynch is

Stay Short EUR/USD targeting 1.1050, then 1.0765 – Barclays Trade Of The Week

Stay Short EUR/USD targeting 1.1050, then 1.0765 – Barclays Trade Of The Week

The ECB’s QE announcement and the Greek elections are behind us. The euro has fallen quite a bit so far this month. Yet also for the last week of January, the team at Barclays sees further room to the downside. Here are the explanations and the chart: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Currency investors should

EUR/USD En-Route To Parity – Nordea

EUR/USD En-Route To Parity – Nordea

Draghi certainly delivered and didn’t disappoint: the big QE announcement sent EUR/USD way down to a weekly close around 1.12, the lowest in over 11 years. Where can the pair find a bottom? The team at Nordea has a clear goal: 1.0000 – parity and here’s why: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The final delivery of

EUR/USD falls below 1.12 – hits critical support – QEffect continues

EUR/USD falls below 1.12 – hits critical support – QEffect continues

IT was only a few hours ago when EUR/USD fell below 1.13 and yet another big figure is broken. The low so far is 1.1165 in a very rapid movement below that round number. Since yesterday, the pair is down over 500 pips, and it’s the most major pair in the world. We explained 5 reasons

EUR/USD falls below 1.13 – the crash continues

EUR/USD falls below 1.13 – the crash continues

EUR/USD is accelerating its losses. The low so far has been 1.1296 but the pair is still battling the round number of 1.13. Update: the pair is already at 1.1267. After the pair already lost the November 2003 level of 1.1373, there isn’t much between here and 1.10. Update: EUR/USD falls below 1.12 – QEffect continues

EUR/USD En-Route To 0.96 in 2015 after ECB Delivers – TD

EUR/USD En-Route To 0.96 in 2015 after ECB Delivers – TD

Reactions continue flowing after the ECB announced a large QE program that could exceed one trillion euros. The euro already lost several big figures but could lose many more: the team at TD sees ongoing pressure on the common currency and set a very low target for EUR/USD at year end: Here is their view, courtesy of