Category: EUR/USD Daily

EUR/USD July 22 – Dips Below 1.35 on Tensions in Ukraine, Gaza



EUR/USD has lost ground on Tuesday, as the pair has again broken below the 1.35 line. Will the pair consolidate below this level? Continuing violence in Gaza and Ukraine has lent support to the safe-haven US dollar. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the US, highlighted by Core CPI and Existing Home Sales. There are no Eurozone events on the schedule.

 Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.

  • EUR/USD moved lower in the Asian session. This movement continued in the European session and the pair broke below key resistance at 1.35.
  • Current range: 1.3450 to 1.35.

Further levels in both directions:  EURUSD. Daily Forecast July 22

  • Below: 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3375 and 1.33.
  • Above: 1.35, 1.3550, 1.3585, 1.3610, 1.3650 and 1.3677.
  • 1.3450 is providing weak support. 1.34 is next.
  • The round number of 1.35 an immediate resistance line. 1.3550 follows.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 13:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%.
  • 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 4.98M. See how to trade this event with EUR/USD.
  • 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 5 points.

*All times are GMT.

For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Ukraine tensions continue: The blame game around the downing of MH17 continues with the Ukrainians and the Russians blaming each other. In addition, there are accusations of tampering with the evidence and looting of the belongings of the victims. Meanwhile, sporadic fighting continues between the separatists and Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine. The Europeans are threatening stronger sanctions against Russia, and escalating tensions within Europe does not bode well for the euro.
  • Gaza violence escalates: The fighting has in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has intensified as Israel’s land offensive continues. As long as oil production in other countries is not disturbed, there will be no impact on the markets. Fighting in Gaza between Hamas and Israel continues to rage, as the international community scrambles to try to get the two sides to agree to a cease fire.
  • Mixed US data: On the job front, things are improving quite nicely, with another drop in jobless claims and continuing claims. However, big disappointments came from the housing sector with significant drops in both building permits and housing starts. The mixed picture was also reflected in a leap in the Philly figure with unexciting retail sales.
  • Yellen hints rate hike likely in 2015: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen concluded two days of testimony on Capitol Hill last week. Yellen declined to directly answer questions about when the Fed would begin to raise rates, but she did acknowledge that most economists expect the Fed to make a move in the third quarter of 2015. The note about “stretched valuations” in some sectors of the equity markets caught investors’ attention and could serve as a hint that the Fed is set to tighten sooner. The dollar eventually reacted positively.
  • Euro inflation numbers remain weak: Try as it might, the ECB can’t seem to coax much inflation out of the Eurozone economy. Final euro-zone CPI for June matched the early print at 0.5% and shows that inflation remains at rock bottom levels. This is well below the central bank’s target of 2%. Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, is also suffering from weak inflation. PPI came in at a flat 0.0%, and the manufacturing inflation index has failed to post a gain in 2014. Faced with weak inflation and growth levels in the Eurozone, the ECB will be under pressure to take some action at its August policy meeting.    

More: EUR/USD in downtrend as USD is on the move – Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/USD July 21 – Attempts a recovery in low range but fails at resistance

EUR/USD July 21 – Attempts a recovery in low range but fails at resistance

EUR/USD starts the new trading week with a recovery in the low range. The dip below 1.35 seen on Friday proved to be a false one. The worsening situation in Gaza and the rising tensions about the plane crash in Ukraine continue to dominate the headlines, especially as the calendar seems thin. Can the pair return to

EUR/USD July 18 – Remains on the edge of the cliff as geo-politics grab headlines

EUR/USD July 18 – Remains on the edge of the cliff as geo-politics grab headlines

EUR/USD remains on low ground, close to the 1.35 edge as the focus shifts from economic news to two geo-political flare ups: the crash of the Malaysian Airlines plane over Ukraine and the ground operation that Israel has launched into Gaza. These escalations have proven positive for the US dollar and the Japanese yen, but EUR/USD

EUR/USD July 17 – Little Movement as Euro CPI Meets Expectations

EUR/USD July 17 – Little Movement as Euro CPI Meets Expectations

EUR/USD is stable in Thursday trade. In the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.35 range. On the release front, Eurozone CPI remained unchanged at 0.5%, matching expectations. In the US, it’s a busy day with three key events, Building Permits, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.  Here is a quick update on

EUR/USD July 16 – Weaker on Yellen Rate Remarks

EUR/USD July 16 – Weaker on Yellen Rate Remarks

EUR/USD continues to post losses on Wednesday. In the European session, the pair is trading in the low-1.35 range. The dollar is broadly higher following remarks from Janet Yellen on Tuesday regarding an interest rate hike. The Fed chair continues with her testimony on Wednesday, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. Today’s US highlight is PPI, with the

EUR/USD July 15 – Euro Under Pressure as German Economic Sentiment Dips

EUR/USD July 15 – Euro Under Pressure as German Economic Sentiment Dips

EUR/USD has dipped below the 1.36 line on Tuesday. The euro is under pressure as German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment both weakened in June and missed their estimates. In the US, today’s highlights are Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales. As well, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will begin two days of testimony on Capitol

EUR/USD July 14 – Moves up in range ahead of Draghi

EUR/USD July 14 – Moves up in range ahead of Draghi

EUR/USD began the new trading week with a move higher within the range. It peaked just below 1.3640 as tension prevents a real break in either direction. ECB president Mario Draghi will dominate the scene later on in an official testimony. Will he attempt to talk down the euro?  Here is a quick update on what’s

EUR/USD July 11 – Remains on low ground as fears float

EUR/USD July 11 – Remains on low ground as fears float

EUR/USD is trading at the lower end of the well known of the range as the week draws to an end. Risk is back in the picture with the miss of the payment in the Portuguese holdings company. The pair went lower also thanks to some hawkish sounds from the Fed, even though things are moving very

EUR/USD July 10 – Softer on Poor Eurozone Manufacturing Data

EUR/USD July 10 – Softer on Poor Eurozone Manufacturing Data

EUR/USD is slightly lower on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range late in the European session. On the release front, French and Italian Industrial Production both posted sharp declines. Today’s highlight in the US is Unemployment Claims, with little change expected from the previous release.  Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair. EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session,

EUR/USD July 9 – Little Movement as Markets Eye FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD July 9 – Little Movement as Markets Eye FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Wednesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.36 line. In the US, today’s major event is the release of the FOMC minutes. In the Eurozone, the sole event is a speech by ECB head Mario Draghi at an event in London.  Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair. EUR/USD showed little movement in the Asian session, touching a