Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast January 26-30 2015



AUD/USD tumbled over 300 points last week, as the pair closed below the 0.80 line, its lowest level since July 2009. This week’s highlights include NAB Business Confidence, CPI and PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

With the currency markets in disarray following the SNB shocker and the ECB’s QE announcement, minor currencies like the Aussie showed sharp losses last week. Solid consumer spending and confidence numbers were not enough to blunt the US dollar tidal wave. In the US, key data was a disappointment. Unemployment Claims was higher than forecast, while Existing Home Sales missed expectations. A beat in Chinese GDP was only enough to hold the Aussie up for a short while.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD_Forecast Jan.26-30.

  1. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. Confidence in the business sector is waning, as the indicator has dropped for four consecutive months. The indicator dropped to just 1 point in the November reading. If Business Confidence slips below the zero line in December, we could see the Australian dollar lose ground.
  2. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The index is a minor event as most of the data has already been released.  The indicator has been very steady, posting a decline of -0.1% in four of the past five releases.
  3. CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. CPI is one of the most important indicators, and traders should treat it as a market-mover. The index has been weakening in recent releases and came in at 0.5% in Q3. The downtrend is expected to continue, with an estimate for Q4 of 0.3%.
  4. Trimmed Mean CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. This index excludes the most volatile items which make up CPI. In Q3, the index dipped to 0.4%, shy of the reading of 0.6%. The forecast for Q4 reading is 0.5%.
  5. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 23:00. This minor indicator continues to posts declines, pointing to weakness in the economy. The November reading came in at -0.2%.
  6. Import Prices: Thursday, 00:30. Import Prices is released  each quarter, and is linked to inflation readings. The indicator posted a decline of -0.8% in Q3, its third decline in four quarters. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround in Q4, with an estimate of 1.5%.
  7. PPI: Friday, 00:30. PPI is the primary measure of inflation in the manufacturing sector. The Q3 reading came in at 0.2%, matching the forecast. Little change is expected in the Q4 reading, with an estimate of 0.3%.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.8225 and quickly touched a high of 0.8244. It was all downhill from there as the pair lost throughout the week, touching a low of 0.7880. AUD/USD broke below support at 0.7904 (discussed last week) and closed the week at 0.7901.

Live chart of AUD/USD:




Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the Aussie sustaining sharp losses, we start at lower levels:

0.8313 has held firm as resistance since mid-December.

0.8150 has switched to resistance following the pair’s sharp losses.

0.7978 was an important cap in January 2007.  It has reverted to a resistance role as UD/USD easily broke through this line.

0.7904 had provided support since July 2009. The pair is trading just below this line, which could see action early in the week.

0.7799 is an immediate support level. It has remained intact since September 2008.

0.7601 was last tested in July 2009.

The final support line for now is 0.7403.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The US dollar continues to show broad strength and if Australian inflation numbers are weak, the Aussie slide could continue. In the US, the Fed will release its statement, and if the Fed provides any clues about the timing of a rate hike, the greenback could respond with gains.

In our latest podcast, we do an ECB QE rundown, SNBomb effect on brokers, surprise cut in Canada & Iranian oil:

[audio mp3="http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Market-Movers-January-23.mp3"][/audio]

Download it directly here

Subscribe to our iTunes page

Further reading:

AUD/USD Forecast January 19-23 2015

AUD/USD Forecast January 19-23 2015

AUD/USD lost ground during the week but recovered, ending the week almost unchanged. AUD/USD closed just above the 0.82 line. The upcoming week has just five releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian job numbers were excellent, with impressive readings from Employment Change and the unemployment

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 12-16 2015

AUD/USD enjoyed its best week since March, as the pair climbed over 100 points. AUD/USD closed just under the 0.82 line. This week’s highlight is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In the US, employment data was solid, as Nonfarm Payrolls was higher than expected,

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 5-9 2015

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 5-9 2015

AUD/USD showed some strength during the week but gave up those gains on Friday. The pair closed the week almost unchanged at 0.8077. This week’s highlights include Retail Sales and Building Approvals. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In the US, key data was on the weak side, as Unemployment

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 2

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 29 – Jan. 2

The Australian dollar held its own against the strong US dollar last week, as AUD/USD closed the week at 0.8120. The final week of the year has only two releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In the US, Final GDP for Q3 was excellent, with a rate of 5% annualized

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 22-26

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 22-26

The Australian dollar lost about 100 points last week, as the currency continues to struggle against its US counterpart. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.8120, its lowest level since June 2010. The week leading up to Christmas is very quiet, with only one release, CB Leading Index. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 15-19

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 15-19

The Australian dollar lost more ground last week, as AUD/USD dropped to its lowest level since June 2010. The pair closed the week at 0.8233. This week’s key indicator is the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The US dollar pushed higher last week, responding to the upbeat retail

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 8-12

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 8-12

The Australian dollar lost over 100 points last week, as AUD/USD dropped to its lowest level since July 2010. The pair closed the week just above the 0.83 line. This week’s key indicators are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In Australia,

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 1-5

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 1-5

The Australian dollar continues to tumble, as AUD/USD lost close to 200 points. The pair closed the week at the 0.85 line, its lowest level in over four years. The upcoming week is a busy one, with over 14 readings. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. It was a

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 24-28

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 24-28

AUD/USD headed to lower ground last week, losing close to 100 points. The pair closed at 0.8659. This week’s highlight is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. An unexpected Chinese rate cut gave the Aussie a brief lift, but the currency still lost ground against