Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1



AUD/USD was unchanged for a third consecutive week, as the pair closed at 0.9384. This week’s highlight are Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian releases were uneventful last week, as CPI matched the forecast. In the US, housing, employment and manufacturing data was excellent, but the greenback failed to take advantage.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Forecast July28-AUG1.

  1. HIA New Home Sales: Tuesday, Tentative. New Home Sales tends to show sharp volatility. After a strong gain in April, the May release posted a sharp decline of 4.3%. Will the indicator bounce back in the upcoming release?
  2. Building Approvals: Thursday, 1:30. This is the first key event of the week. The indicator tends to swing sharply, leading to estimates that are often well off the mark. This was the case last month, as the indicator soared 9.9%, crushing the estimate of 3.1%. The markets are expecting a gain of just 0.2% in the June reading.
  3. Import Prices: Thursday, 1:30. Import Prices bounced back last month, posting an excellent gain of 3.2%. This easily beat the estimate of 1.9%. The markets are braced for a sharp downturn in June, with the estimate standing at -1.4%.
  4. AIG Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 23:30. The index has struggled below the 50 line since September, indicative of ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector. Will the indicator improve and push above 50 in the upcoming release?
  5. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:00. Key Chinese data can have a strong impact on the movement of AUD/USD, since China is Australia’s number one trading partner. Manufacturing PMI continues to stay slightly above the 50 line, which separates expansion from contraction. The index improved to 51.0 points last month, matching the forecast. The markets are expecting the upward move to continue, with the estimate standing at 51.4 points.
  6. PPI: Friday, 1:30. PPI is the primary gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector. The index jumped 0.9% last month, beating the estimate of 0.6%. Another strong gain is expected, with the estimate standing at 0.7%.
  7. Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:45. There was good news from the index last month, as it pushed above the 50-point level for the first time in 2014. The index came in at 50.7 points, close to the estimate of 50 8 points. The estimate for the June release stands at 52.0 points.
  8. Commodity Prices: Friday, 6:30. Commodity Prices continue to post sharp declines, indicative of weak demand for Australian exports. No significant change is expected in the upcoming release.

*All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.9394 and dropped to a low of 0.9361, as the pair broke below support at 0.9369 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions, climbing to a high of 0.9474 late in the week. The pair was unable to consolidate at these levels, and closed the week unchanged at 0.9384.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We begin with resistance at 0.9910, which has remained firm since last May.

0.9757 marked the start of a rally by the US dollar back in October 2013, which saw the pair drop as low as 0.8650.

This is followed by the round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

0.9441 was breached but recovered and is a weak resistance line. This line marked the high point of the pair in November, which saw the Aussie go on a sharp slide and drop below the 0.89 line.

0.9369 was briefly breached early in the week. It is providing weak support and could see further action early in the week.

0.9282 remains a strong support level. 0.9175 is next.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March.

The final support line for now is 0.8891. AUD/USD broke above this line in February and it has provided strong support since then.

I remain neutral on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar often takes its riders on roller coaster rides, but AUD/USD has been unusually subdued, with little movement since early June. Strong US numbers have not translated into gains for the US dollar, as the Aussie continues to trade at high levels. So, it could be another lazy summer week for the pair.

AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25

AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25

AUD/USD was unchanged for a second straight week, as the pair closed at 0.9382. This week’s highlight is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data was uneventful last week. The RBA minutes indicated that policymakers continue to be concerned about the high value of the

AUD/USD Forecast July 14-18

AUD/USD Forecast July 14-18

AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9352. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian employment data was a mix, as Employment Claims rebounded but the unemployment rate moved upwards. This weighed on the

AUD/USD Forecast July 7-11

AUD/USD Forecast July 7-11

AUD/USD showed some movement in both directions but ended the week with slight losses. The pair closed the week at 0.9352. The upcoming week is highlighted by NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. US employment numbers sparkled last week, led by

AUD/USD Forecast June 30-July4

AUD/USD Forecast June 30-July4

AUD/USD showed little change for a second straight week, as the pair closed at 0.9421. The upcoming week is a busy one, highlighted by Building Approvals and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. US GDP for Q1 shocked the markets with a decline of 2.9% and this resulted

AUD/USD Forecast June 23-27

AUD/USD Forecast June 23-27

AUD/USD was unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9385. There is only one release this week, as RBA Deputy Governor delivers remarks in Melbourne. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.  In the US, the Federal Reserve’s statement that interest rates would remain at low levels weighed on the US dollar. Unemployment

AUD/USD Forecast June 16-20

AUD/USD Forecast June 16-20

AUD/USD had another quiet week, posting minor gains. The pair closed at the round number of 0.9400. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian numbers were a mix last week, as business sentiment improved, while Employment Change took a tumble.  In

AUD/USD Forecast June 9-13

AUD/USD Forecast June 9-13

AUD/USD didn’t show much movement over the week, posting slight gains. The pair closed at 0.9332. This week’s highlights are Business Confidence, Consumer Sentiment and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Building Permits and Retail Sales disappointed, but a solid GDP helped the Aussie hold its own last week.

AUD/USD Forecast June 2-6

AUD/USD Forecast June 2-6

AUD/USD posted a rally late in the week, and the pair closed at 0.9229. It’s a busy week, highlighted by GDP and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar managed to post gains despite a sharp decline in Private Capital Expenditure. In the

AUD/USD Forecast May 26-30

AUD/USD Forecast May 26-30

AUD/USD lost over one cent last week, and the pair closed at 0.9229. This week’s highlight is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar lost one cent following the release of the RBA minutes early last week. The central bank set growth projections would not be met and