Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 22-26



AUD/USD continued its losing ways last week, losing close to 100 points, as the pair closed at 0.8922. AUD/USD has now slipped to its lowest level since March. It’s another quiet week on the release front, highlighted by a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens in Melbourne. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Aussie got a temporary boost from reports about Chinese stimulus. However, the Aussie proved its weakness by being unable to hold on to gains, and eventually lost and fell further away from the 0.90 level. US job claims dropped sharply last week, and the Fed hinted that once rates are raised, subsequent hikes could take place more quickly than expected. This certainly helped the greenback.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Forecast Sep22-26

  1. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:00. This composite index is based on 7 economic indicators, and helps analysts track in what direction the economy is headed. The index improved to 0.4% in the previous release, its best reading since January. Will the upswing continue in the August release?
  2. RBA Financial Stability Review: Tuesday, 00:00. This semi-annual report looks at conditions and risks in the financial system, and analysts will be combing through, looking for hints as to future monetary policy.
  3. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks: Thursday, 2:30. This is the key event of the week. Stevens will address the Melbourne Economic Forum and any unexpected comments could lead to some volatility from AUD/USD. Stevens tried to talk down the A$ several times. He usually had more success when it was already leaning lower. Will he do this again?

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9012 and quickly moved to a high of 0.9112. The pair then made a sharp U-turn, dropping all the way to 0.8921, as support held firm at 0.8891 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed the week at 0.8922.

Live chart of AUD/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.9425, which served as resistance in April and occasionally capped the pair afterwards.

0.9330 was a cushion for the pair during July but has reverted to a resistance role after the Aussie’s sharp drop last week.

0.9270 supported the pair in August but reverted to resistance in September as the Aussie has sustained steep losses.

0.9175 remains a strong resistance line.

The round number of 0.9000 started last week as an immediate support line. It was easily breached and has reverted to a resistance role.

0.8891 has weakened significantly in support, but managed to hold firm. It is a weak support line and could see further action early in the week.

0.8763 marked the low point of a US dollar rally in January, which began above the 0.90 level.

0.8550 has remained intact since December 2007.

0.8316 is the final support level for now. This line marked the start low point of a US dollar rally which saw the greenback climb above the 1.10 level.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The US dollar continues to enjoy strong gains and the Aussie has slipped below the psychologically significant 0.90 line., Will the shaky Australian dollar continue to tumble?  The FOMC statement helped the greenback, and the guessing game as to the timing of a rate hike will soon heat up.

In our latest episode, we talk about the risk/reward ratio, the FOMC decision and what it means for the dollar and Chinese wobbles:

[audio mp3="http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Market-Movers-Spetember-18.mp3"][/audio]

Download it directly here.

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AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19

AUD/USD suffered its worst week in over a year, losing more than 300 points. The pair closed the week slightly above the 0.90 level. The upcoming week is quiet, highlighted by the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian business and consumer confidence indicators softened,

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD posted small gains over the week, closing at 0.9366. This week’s key releases are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases met expectations for the most part, and the RBA didn’t adjust rates but took a swipe at the high

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 1-5

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 1-5

AUD/USD showed a lot of strength, resisting the greenback and eventually moving higher. Can this continue without a response from the RBA? The rate decision and GDP are the big events in a very busy week that consists of no less than 16 indicators . Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 25-29

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 25-29

AUD/USD showed some downward movement, but ended the week unchanged, as the pair closed at 0.9315. This week’s major event is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Aussie dipped after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens sounded somewhat downbeat, as he stated that in the present economic environment, the economy needed

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 18-22

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 18-22

For a second straight week, AUD/USD showed little movement, as the pair closed at 0.9316. This week’s major events focus on the RBA. The central bank will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Governor Glen Stevens is scheduled to testify before a parliamentary committee. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 11-15

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 11-15

AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9271. This week’s highlight is NAB Business Confidence. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Retail Sales were strong, but dismal employment data weighed on the Aussie, which dipped below the 0.93 level. In the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 4-8

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 4-8

AUD/USD lost close to a cent last week, as the pair closed just above the 0.93 level. This week’s highlights are Retail Sales and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Building Approvals and PPI both posted declines in June, hurting the Australian dollar. In the

AUD/USD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1

AUD/USD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1

AUD/USD was unchanged for a third consecutive week, as the pair closed at 0.9384. This week’s highlights are Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases were uneventful last week, as CPI matched the forecast. In the US, housing, employment and manufacturing data was excellent, but the

AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25

AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25

AUD/USD was unchanged for a second straight week, as the pair closed at 0.9382. This week’s highlight is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data was uneventful last week. The RBA minutes indicated that policymakers continue to be concerned about the high value of the