Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 15-19



The Australian dollar lost more ground last week, as AUD/USD dropped to its lowest level since June 2010. The pair closed the week at 0.8233. This week’s key indicator is the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The US dollar pushed higher last week, responding to the upbeat retail sales number and the excellent consumer confidence report. In Australia, Business and consumer indicators slipped, while employment data was mixed. The RBA had a higher sense of urgency regarding the weakness of the Australian dollar, with Stevens expressing a desire for 0.75. Can the Aussie continue lower?

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSDForecast Dec.14-19

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 00:30. This is an important indicator of consumer spending, as a new vehicle is an expensive durable good. The indicator has stumbled recently, posting three declines in the past four releases. The November reading came in at -1.6%.
  2. Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook: Monday, 1:30. This report provides an updated economic report card of the government’s fiscal performance compared to its strategy in the annual budget which was released back in May. Significant discrepancies between the budget and the outlook report could weigh on the Australian dollar.
  3. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Tuesday, 00:15. Debelle will speak at a banking conference in Sydney. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Aussie.
  4. RBA Monetary Policy Meetings Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This is the key event of the week. The minutes will provide the details of the policy meeting which took place earlier in December. At the meeting, the RBA said that interest rates will remain at low levels for the near future.
  5. HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 1:45. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese numbers, as the Asian giant is Australia’s number one trade partner. The PMI has been hovering just above the 50 line since April, pointing to slight expansion. The estimate for the upcoming release stands at 49.8 points.
  6. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The indicator is based on 9 indicators, but is a minor event since most of the data has been previously released.
  7. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 00:30. This minor event wraps up the week. The RBA quarterly bulletin provides an analysis of current and future economic conditions.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.8307 and climbed to a high of 0.8376. The pair then dropped to 0.8217, easily breaking below support at 0.8316. (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.8233.

Live chart of AUD/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the Australian dollar sustaining losses, we begin at lower levels:

0.8750 has held firm since mid-November.

0.8660 is a strong resistance line. 0.8550 is next.

0.8456 held firm as the pair posted gains before retracting.

0.8316 has switched to a resistance role as the pair lost ground.

0.8150 has remained intact since September 2007.

0.8013 is the last barrier in front of the psychologically critical line of 0.8000.

0.7978 was an important cap in January 2007.

0.7904 is the final support level for now. The line was an important cap in November 2006.

I remain bearish on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar is struggling at multi-year highs as the US numbers continue to shine. The RBA minutes will likely focus on the low interest rate environment that is expected to continue, as the RBA does feel the economy can weather a rate hike at this time.

In our latest podcast we talk about US jobs, the ECB’s dilemma, a run down of slippery oil and an interesting interview with Itai Furman.

[audio mp3="http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/www.forexcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Market-Movers-December-11.mp3"][/audio]

Download it directly here.

Further reading:

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 8-12

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 8-12

The Australian dollar lost over 100 points last week, as AUD/USD dropped to its lowest level since July 2010. The pair closed the week just above the 0.83 line. This week’s key indicators are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In Australia,

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 1-5

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 1-5

The Australian dollar continues to tumble, as AUD/USD lost close to 200 points. The pair closed the week at the 0.85 line, its lowest level in over four years. The upcoming week is a busy one, with over 14 readings. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. It was a

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 24-28

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 24-28

AUD/USD headed to lower ground last week, losing close to 100 points. The pair closed at 0.8659. This week’s highlight is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. An unexpected Chinese rate cut gave the Aussie a brief lift, but the currency still lost ground against

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 17-21

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 17-21

AUD/USD bounced back last week, gaining close to 100 points. The pair closed at 0.8736. This week has six events, led by the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. US job numbers were not as strong as the markets had expected. Unemployment claims missed expectations and JOLTS softened. Still, there was

AUD/USD Forecast November 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast November 10-14

AUD/USD lost about 130 points last week, as the pair closed at 0.8622. The Aussie played catch up with its peers after showing resilience beforehand. The upcoming week is busy,with many events to move the A$. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Last week’s US job numbers were not as

AUD/USD Forecast November 3-7

AUD/USD Forecast November 3-7

AUD/USD showed little change last week, closing at 0.8766. The upcoming week is busy, with 14 releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. As expected, the Fed ended its QE program,  a vote of confidence for the economy from the powerful Fed. The Fed released a hawkish policy

AUD/USD Forecast October 27-31

AUD/USD Forecast October 27-31

AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, closing at 0.8786. There are just four events this week, highlighted by PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data met expectations and the RBA minutes showed highlighted continuing concern at the RBA with the high value of the Australian dollar. In

AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 20-24

AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 20-24

AUD/USD was marked by choppy trading this week and posted modest gains. AUD/USD closed at 0.8743. This week’s highlights are the RBA minutes and CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The US dollar lost ground to its Australian counterpart last week, thanks to soft US retail sales and another weak inflation reading

AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 13-17

AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 13-17

AUD/USD posted strong gains last week but then retracted, as the pair was unchanged at the end of the week. AUD/USD closed at 0.8672. This week’s highlight is NAB Business Confidence. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In the US, the dollar got a significant blow from the FOMC minutes, where the Fed voiced its concern