Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast July 6-10



AUD/USD lost about 100 points last week, and briefly slipped below the 0.75 line for the first time in over six years. The pair closed the week at 0.7746. This week’s highlights are the Cash Rate and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

There was plenty of US job numbers for the markets to chew on last week. Nonfarm Payrolls showed a gain 223K jobs in June, slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate dropped more than expected, but wages disappointed. Australian Building Approvals looked sharp, but Retail Sales and Trade Balance both fell short of expectations.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUD_USD_Forecast.July6-10

  1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:30. This monthly index helps analysts track CPI, which is released every quarter. The indicator has been steady, posting gains of 0.3% for two consecutive months.
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. This indicator is an important gauge of the health of the labor market. The indicator slipped to a flat 0.0% reading in May, compared to a 2.7% gain a month earlier. Will the indicator rebound and push into positive territory in the June report?
  3. AIG Construction Index: Monday, 23:30. This minor indicator continues to struggle, and has pushed above the 50-point level (which separates contraction from expansion) only once in 2015. The index came in at 47.8 points in May.
  4. Cash Rate: Tuesday, 4:30. The RBA has held the benchmark interest rate at 2.00% for the past two months. No change is expected when the RBA issues its rate announcement for July.
  5. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. Employment Change is the key event of the week, and an unexpected reading can have a significant impact on the direction of AUD/USD. The indicator shot up in May to 42.0 thousand, crushing the estimate of 12.1 thousand. The markets are bracing for a sharp downturn in the June report, with a forecast of 0.1 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly in May, slipping to 6.0%, beating the forecast of 6.2%. The indicator is expected to rise to 6.1% in the June release.
  6. Chinese CPI: Thursday, 1:30. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese data such as CPI, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. In May, Chinese CPI slipped to 1.2%, a 4-month low. This reading was within expectations. Little change is expected in the June report.
  7. Home Loans: Friday, 1:30. Home Loans is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector. The indicator slipped in April, falling to 1.0%. However, this easily beat the estimate of -1.8% and marked a 3-month high. The markets are bracing for a sharp decline in the upcoming release, with a forecast of -2.8%.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.7618 and climbed to a high of 0.7738. The pair then reversed directions, touching a low of 0.7533, as support held firm at 0.7528 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed the week at 0.7506.

Live chart of AUD/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with 0.8077, which was an active line in May.

0.7975 is the next line of resistance.

0.7901 was an important cap in March. This line held firm as the pair softened before recovering.

0.7798 was tested during the week and remains a weak resistance line. It could see further action early in the week.

0.7692 is providing immediate support. It was tested last week as the pair lost ground before recovering.

0.7602 is a strong support level.

0.7528 is the next support line.

0.7403 has remained intact since May 2009. At that time, the Aussie was in the midst of a rally which saw it climb above the 0.94 line.

0.7266 marked a high point for the pair in January 2009.

0.7113 is the final support line for now.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

US data has been mixed, but the Fed seems to be on track for a hike in September, while the RBA will likely keep rates at record lows. If Australian job numbers disappoint, the Aussie’s slide could continue.

In our latest podcast we feature a Greferendum preview, NFP review and more

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Further reading:

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