Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Outlook April 17-21



AUD/USD continues to shine, posting gains of about a cent last week. The pair closed just below the 0.94 line. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The Aussie rise was fuelled by excellent employment data. In the US, Unemployment Claims improved and inflation and consumer sentiment beat their estimates.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  AUDUSD Outlook Apr14-18

  1. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. This is the major event of the week. The report provides details of the RBA’s most recent policy meeting, and any references to the Australian dollar could impact on the movement of AUD/USD.
  2. MI Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:30. The index is based on 9 economic indicators. It is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. Three of the past four readings have been in negative territory, and the markets will be hoping for a gain in the March release.
  3. Chinese GDP: Wednesday, 2:00. Key Chinese indicators such as GDP can have a significant impact on AUD/USD, since China is Australia’s number one trading partner. Last month, GDP posted a gain of 7.6%, edging above the estimate of 7.6%. The forecast for the March release stands at 7.4%.
  4. Chinese Industrial Production: Wednesday, 2:00. This key manufacturing indicator remains at high levels, but recent readings have been dropping, raising concern that the world’s number two economy is slowing down. The indicator slipped to 8.6% last month, a five-year low. It was well below the estimate of 9.5%. The markets are expecting an improvement in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 9.1%.
  5. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Thursday, 1:30. This indicator has been moving upwards, and the Q4 reading of 8 points hit a three-year high. Will the upward trend continue in Q1?
  6. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Thursday, 1:30. New Motor Vehicle Sales is an important gauge of consumer spending, as motor vehicles are big-ticket items. The indicator has run into some turbulence, with a gain of just 0.1% in the previous release and a decline a month earlier. Consumer spending is an important component of economic growth, so a strong reading could give a boost to the Australian dollar.

*All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened the week at 0.9288 and quickly dropped to a low of 0.9254. The pair then reversed directions, climbing all the way to 0.9461, breaking support at 0.9442 (discussed last week). AUD/USD closed at 0.9394.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

With the Aussie posting strong gains, we begin at higher ground:

We begin with resistance at the round number of 0.99, a key resistance level.

Next is 0.9794, which was last tested in June 2013.

There is resistance at the round number of 0.9700, which has held firm since October 2013.

0.9526 provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

0.9442 was breached last week but remains in a resistance role. The line marked the high point of the pair in November, which saw the Aussie go on a sharp slide and drop below the 0.89 line.

0.9368 has switched to a support role following strong gains by the Australian dollar. It was a key support line last October.

0.9283 is providing strong support. This line saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. This is followed by support at 0.9180.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It has remained intact since early March. AUD/USD has been showing impressive gains since then. 0.8893 is the next support line.

The final support level for now is 0.8728. It marks the low point of an Aussie rally which began in early February and pushed above the 0.90 level.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The RBA has noted aloud on numerous occasions that it would like to see the Aussie at lower levels, and we could see these sentiments repeated in the RBA minutes. US numbers have been generally positive, and the markets are expecting another QE taper later in April, which is a dollar-positive event.

AUD/USD Forecast April 7-11

AUD/USD Forecast April 7-11

AUD/USD posted strong gains last week, climbing about 150 points. The pair closed at 0.9245. This week’s highlights are the Cash Rate and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data was uneventful last week, as the RBA maintained interest rates at 2.50%. RBA head Glenn

AUD/USD Forecast Mar 31-Apr 4

AUD/USD Forecast Mar 31-Apr 4

AUD/USD posted strong gains last week, climbing about 150 points. The pair closed at 0.9245. This week’s highlights are the Cash Rate and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. US Unemployment Claims and GDP looked strong last week, but housing numbers failed to meet expectations. The

AUD/USD Forecast March 24-28

AUD/USD Forecast March 24-28

AUD/USD showed some gains early on, but ended the week almost unchanged. There are no data releases this week, as the spotlight will be on RBA events. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales improved in February, but posted a paltry gain of 0.1%.

AUD/USD Forecast March 17-21

AUD/USD Forecast March 17-21

AUD/USD settled down this week, showing little change as it closed just above the 0.90 level. There are just five events on this week’s schedule. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Employment Change surprised with a very strong reading, but the Aussie failed to take advantage. In the US,

AUD/USD Forecast March 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast March 10-14

AUD/USD had an excellent week, posting gains of about 160 points. The pair closed at 0.9060. The highlights this week are the NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Aussie got some help from excellent Australian releases last week, including Building Permits and GDP.

AUD/USD Forecast March 3-7

AUD/USD Forecast March 3-7

AUD/USD continued to lose ground last week, posting modest losses. The pair closed at 0.8919. This week is very busy with 16 releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. US releases continue to disappoint, as GDP missed the estimate and Unemployment Claims were higher than expected. In Australia, Private Capital

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 24-28

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 24-28

AUD/USD dipped below the 0.90 level and lost close to a cent on the week. The pair closed at 0.8971. This week’s highlight is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Both US and Australian releases ran into turbulence last week. In Australia, New Motor Vehicle Sales posted a

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 17-21

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 17-21

AUD/USD posted weekly gains for the third consecutive time, climbing close to one cent last week. The pair closed slightly above the key 0.90 line. This week’s highlight is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Employment Change was a major disappointment, but the Aussie managed to shrug off the weak release.

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 10-14

AUD/USD enjoyed an excellent week, gaining over 200 points. The pair tested the key 0.900 line and closed the week at 0.8957. This week’s highlights are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click