- The RBA held rates but was less hawkish.
- RBA Governor Michelle Bullock failed to provide clear rate-cut guidance.
- The dollar was steady ahead of the FOMC meeting that might shape the Fed’s rate cut outlook.
The AUD/USD price analysis indicates more downside potential as the pair declines following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting. Notably, the RBA held rates but was less hawkish, noting that inflation had progressed and the economy was slowing down. Consequently, rate-cut bets increased.
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At its last meeting, the RBA had been hawkish, stating there was still a chance of a hike. However, this tone shifted on Tuesday to a more neutral one. Still, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock failed to provide clear rate-cut guidance. The RBA will likely take a cautious stance, assessing data as it comes.
Before the meeting, markets had expected the RBA to cut rates by 37 bps in 2024. However, after the meeting, this increased to 43bps. The RBA is working to lower inflation to a target of between 2 and 3%.
Meanwhile, the dollar was steady ahead of the FOMC meeting that might shape the Fed’s rate cut outlook. While markets expect the Fed to hold rates, there is speculation that policymakers will take on a less dovish stance.
Notably, recent data has shown continued resilience in the US economy with pockets of weakness. At the same time, inflation beat forecasts, leading to a decline in rate-cut bets. Currently, the probability of a cut in June is below 60%. A hawkish Fed at tomorrow’s meeting could push this value below 50%.
AUD/USD key events today
There are no more key events today that might significantly impact AUD/USD. As a result, traders will keep digesting the outcome of the RBA policy meeting.
AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bearish breakout signals change in direction
On the technical side, AUD/USD has made a significant bearish move, breaking out of its bullish channel. Consequently, the bias is strongly bearish. The price now trades well below the 30-SMA, showing a steep decline. Meanwhile, the RSI shows strong bearish momentum in the oversold region.
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Although the price has broken out of its bullish channel, bears must confirm the breakout before it continues lower. To do this, the price must retest the channel support and bounce lower for a lower low. This would allow bears to retest the 0.6500 and 0.6450 support levels.
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Saqib Iqbal
