Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 15-19



AUD/USD suffered its worst week in over a year, losing more than 300 points. The pair closed the week slightly above the 0.90 level. The upcoming week is quiet, highlighted by the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian business and consumer confidence indicators softened, and an incredibly high Employment Change reading in August provided fleeting relief only for the slumping Aussie. US employment data was soft, but consumer confidence and retail sales beat the estimates. Update: Chinese industrial output growth weakest since 2008 – AUD could suffer and lose 0.90

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

AUDUSD Forecast Sep15-19

  1. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Monday, 1:30. This indicator is an important gauge of demand in the employment sector. Last month, the indicator disappointed with a gain of just 0.3%. The markets will be hoping for better news in the August release.
  2. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent: Tuesday, 00:00. Kent will deliver remarks at a conference in Sydney. A speech that is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  3. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. This is the key event of the week. The minutes provide details of the most recent policy meeting. The markets will be looking for hints as to future rate policy as well as references to the high value of the Australian dollar.
  4. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. This event has a minor impact on AUD/USD since most of the data has already been released. It is published on a quarterly basis.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9364 which was also the high of the week. The pair plunged to a low of 0.9026, as support held at the round number of 0.9000 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 0.9026.

Live chart of AUD/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start at 0.9526, which provided key resistance in November 2013 and has remained intact since that time.

Within the higher ranger, 0.9425 served as resistance in April occasionally capped the pair afterwards.

0.9330 was a cushion for the pair during July but has reverted to a resistance role after the Aussie’s sharp drop last week.

0.9270 supported the pair in August but has also switched to resistance.

0.9175 was unable to blunt the pair’s fall and starts off the week as resistance.

The round number of 0.9000 is a key psychological level. It is an immediate support level and could see action early in the week.

0.8891 has provided strong support since February.

0.8763 marked the low point of a US dollar rally in January, which began above the 0.90 level.

The final support level for now is 0.8550, which has remained intact since December 2007.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The US dollar has been practically unstoppable, and could continue to push higher against the shaky Australian dollar. The US economy continues to move in the right direction, and with QE close to its end, speculation about the timing of an interest rate could give a boost to the US dollar.

More Aussie: AUD/USD – Make It Or Break It For The Aussie?

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AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 8-12

AUD/USD posted small gains over the week, closing at 0.9366. This week’s key releases are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases met expectations for the most part, and the RBA didn’t adjust rates but took a swipe at the high [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 1-5

AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 1-5

AUD/USD showed a lot of strength, resisting the greenback and eventually moving higher. Can this continue without a response from the RBA? The rate decision and GDP are the big events in a very busy week that consists of no less than 16 indicators . Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 25-29

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 25-29

AUD/USD showed some downward movement, but ended the week unchanged, as the pair closed at 0.9315. This week’s major event is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Aussie dipped after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens sounded somewhat downbeat, as he stated that in the present economic environment, the economy needed [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 18-22

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 18-22

For a second straight week, AUD/USD showed little movement, as the pair closed at 0.9316. This week’s major events focus on the RBA. The central bank will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Governor Glen Stevens is scheduled to testify before a parliamentary committee. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 11-15

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 11-15

AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9271. This week’s highlight is NAB Business Confidence. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Retail Sales were strong, but dismal employment data weighed on the Aussie, which dipped below the 0.93 level. In the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 4-8

AUD/USD Forecast Aug. 4-8

AUD/USD lost close to a cent last week, as the pair closed just above the 0.93 level. This week’s highlights are Retail Sales and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Building Approvals and PPI both posted declines in June, hurting the Australian dollar. In the [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1

AUD/USD Forecast July 28-Aug. 1

AUD/USD was unchanged for a third consecutive week, as the pair closed at 0.9384. This week’s highlights are Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases were uneventful last week, as CPI matched the forecast. In the US, housing, employment and manufacturing data was excellent, but the [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25

AUD/USD Forecast July 21-25

AUD/USD was unchanged for a second straight week, as the pair closed at 0.9382. This week’s highlight is CPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data was uneventful last week. The RBA minutes indicated that policymakers continue to be concerned about the high value of the [&hellip

AUD/USD Forecast July 14-18

AUD/USD Forecast July 14-18

AUD/USD was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed at 0.9352. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian employment data was a mix, as Employment Claims rebounded but the unemployment rate moved upwards. This weighed on the [&hellip

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