Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 30-Jan. 3



AUD/USD had a quiet week, which was marked by thin trade over the holidays. The pair posted modest losses, closing at 0.8868. There are just four releases this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The US bounced back with strong data last week, as Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales looked sharp. Despite the strong numbers, the US dollar could only muster slight gains.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  AUD USD Forecast Dec. 30-Jan.3

  1. Private Sector Credit: Tuesday, 00:30. Private Sector Credit looks at the amount of new credit issued to consumers and businesses. An increase in borrowing likely signals more spending, which is critical for economic growth. The indicator has shown little movement recently, posting gains of 0.3% for the past three releases. The estimate for November stands at 0.4%.
  2. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 1:00. This key index has been very steady, posting four consecutive readings around the 51 line, which indicates slight expansion in the manufacturing sector. Little change is expected in the November release.
  3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 22:30. The index continues to fluctuate above and below the key 50 line, as the manufacturing sector has had difficulty creating positive momentum.  The indicator dropped to 47.7 in October and the markets will be looking for an improvement in the upcoming release.
  4. Commodity Prices: Thursday, 5:30. Commodity Prices is an important indicator since Australia relies heavily on its export sector. The indicator continues to post declines, but recent releases have improved dramatically from the sharp declines which characterized the indicator. The November reading posted a decline of 1.9% and the markets will be hoping for a stronger reading from this week’s release.

*All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.8922 and quickly hit the week’s high of 0.8958. The pair then dropped to a low of 0.8862, breaking through support at 0.8893 (discussed last week) and closed at 0.8868

Live chart of AUD/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.9441. This line marks the start of a downward spiral in November which saw the Australian dollar drop close to the key 0.90 level.

0.9283 saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It has provided steady resistance since November.

0.9180 is the next line of resistance. It is followed by the round number of 0.9000, which held firm as AUD/USD moved higher early in the week.

0.8893 was breached for the second straight week and has reverted to a resistance role. It is a weak line and could be tested if the Aussie reverses directions and gains ground.

0.8728 was last breached in July 2010, when the Australian dollar began an extended rally that saw it climb close to the 1.10 line. This is followed by 0.8578.

0.8432 is the final support line for now. This line played a key support role in late 2009.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar continues to flounder and is trading below the 0.89 level. With QE taper a reality, we can expect further taper moves by the Fed, which will likely give a boost to the US dollar.

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 23-30

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 23-30

AUD/USD lost ground after the Federal Reserve announcement, but showed only modest losses on the week, closing at 0.8914. There are no releases this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The US dollar gained ground against the Australian dollar following the Fed announcement that it was tapering QE

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 16-20

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 16-20

The Australian dollar took a tumble last week, as AUD/USD lost about 150 points and dropped below the 0.90 level. The pair closed the week at 0.8963. This week’s major events is the minutes from the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar is under

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 9-13

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 9-13

AUD/USD briefly dropped below the key 0.90 level, but bounced back to close the week almost unchanged at the 0.91 line. This week’s major events include NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data was mixed, as Building Approvals declined while Retail Sales beat

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 2-6

AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 2-6

AUD/USD continues to lose ground, but the losses were modest this past week. The pair closed the week just above the 0.91 line. There are a host of key events in the upcoming week, including Retail Sales and the Cash Rate. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 25-29

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 25-29

AUD/USD tumbled last week, dropping two cents. The pair closed the week at 0.9167. This week’s key event is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Aussie took a hit after RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said he was open to currency intervention to push

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 18-22

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 18-22

AUD/USD had an uneventful week, and was unchanged at week’s end. The pair closed the week at 0.9365. This week’s key event is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian numbers were mixed last week, but the key event was a disappointment,

AUD/USD Forecast Nov.11-15

AUD/USD Forecast Nov.11-15

AUD/USD posted modest gains last week, as the pair dropped below the 0.94 line, closing at 0.9385. This week’s key event is NAB Business Confidence. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian employment numbers were weak and the RBA maintained rates but again railed against the high value of the Australian

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 4-8

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 4-8

The Australian dollar had a rough week, as AUD/USD lost about 140 points. The pair closed at 0.9436. The upcoming week is busy, with 13 releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Building Approvals and PPI looked sharp last week, but the solid releases were of little help to

AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 28 – Nov. 1

AUD/USD Forecast Oct. 28 – Nov. 1

AUD/USD reversed direction last week, as the pair lost close to a cent, closing the week at 0.9582. This week’s highlights include Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian CPI was stronger than expected, while in the US, employment and manufacturing data disappointed. However, the Aussie