Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast August 12-16



After tumbling over three cents two weeks ago, the Australian dollar recovered nicely and regained almost all of these losses. AUD/USD ended the week close to the 0.92 line. It’s a very quiet week ahead, with just 5 releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian Retail Sales and Employment Change disappointed, but the Aussie still managed to post sharp gains against the US dollar, as the latter was broadly weaker due to the absence of pro-taper news.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  AUD USD Aug12-16 Technical Analysis

  1. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:30. Business Confidence has been steadily improving, and climbed to the zero level in the July reading. A reading above zero indicates positive conditions. Will the indicator push into positive territory in the upcoming reading?
  2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 00:30. Improved consumer confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending, which is critical for economic growth. Consumer Sentiment tends to fluctuate sharply, resulting in estimates which are often well off the mark. After a strong gain of 4.7% in June, the index declined by -0.1% last month. The markets are hoping that the index can get back on track with a gain in the August release.
  3. Wage Price Index: Wednesday, 1:30. This index has been quite steady and the market estimates quite accurate. The index posted a 0.7% gain in July and the markets are not expecting much of a change in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 0.8%.
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 1:00. MI Inflation Expectations helps analysts predict actual inflation figures, so this monthly indicator is an important inflation indicator. In July, the indicator jumped to its highest level in a year, with a gain of 2.6%.
  5. RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks: Friday, 1:30.Debelle with address a financial forum in Sydney. With the RBA fresh of a rate cut, analysts will be closely monitoring Debelle’s speech and looking for any hints as to the central bank’s future monetary policy. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.8912. The pair then touched a low of 0.8907, as the support level of 0.8893 (discussed last week) held firm. The Aussie showed surprising strength, climbing steadily throughout the week, hitting a high of 0.9215. AUD/USD ended the week close to the 0.92 line.

Live chart of AUD/USD: 


Technical lines from top to bottom:   

With AUD/USD posting sharp gains, we start at higher levels.

We begin with strong resistance at 0.9748, which acted as a cap in early June.

0.9634 saw action in mid-June, when the pair started a downward slide in which it dropped below the 0.92 line.

0.9549 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by 0.9428. This line had played a support role since late 2011, but was breached in June, and has provided strong resistance since then.

0.9283 saw  a lot of action in the month of July, alternating between resistance and support. It is currently providing weak resistance, and could be tested early in the week.

AUD/USD continues to receive support at 0.9180. This line began the week in a resistance role, but could not hold in the face of an impressive rally by the Australian dollar.

0.9041 was providing weak support in the first half of July, but has again gained some breathing room as the AUD/USD trades at higher levels.

The round number of 90 is next. This psychologically important level has provided support since September 2010, but has seen some action over the past few weeks.

0.8893 has been a steady support line since August 2010, as the Australian dollar put together a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.10 line. It was briefly breached late last week, but is back in a strong support role as the pair has gained ground.

0.8747 is the final support line for now. This line has remained in place since July 2010.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The Aussie looked impressive last week, posting sharp gains despite weak domestic data and a rate cut by the RBA. With the AUD/USD losing over three cents the week before last, the volatility could continue, and with the Australian economy continuing to underperform, another strong surge this week by the Australian dollar seems unlikely.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

AUD/USD Forecast August 5-9

AUD/USD Forecast August 5-9

The Australian dollar dropped sharply, losing 350 points against the US dollar last week. AUD/USD dipped into 0.88 territory and closed the week just above the 0.89 line, at 0.8902. It’s a very busy week, with 14 releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Building

AUD/USD Forecast July 29-August 2

AUD/USD Forecast July 29-August 2

The Australian dollar showed some movement in both directions, but ended the week with little net change, closing at 0.9260. This week’s highlights are Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD lost some ground in mid-week as Australian CPI missed the estimate and Chinese Manufacturing PMI

AUD/USD Forecast July 22-26

AUD/USD Forecast July 22-26

The Australian dollar rose close to one cent on the week, closing at 0.9170. This week’s highlight is CPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD jumped sharply after the RBA minutes pointed to some weakening of the central bank’s easing bias. The pair climbed close to the 0.93 line,

AUD/USD Forecast July 15-19

AUD/USD Forecast July 15-19

The Australian dollar pushed over the 0.93 line, but could not consolidate these gains, and closed the week virtually unchanged, at 0.9038. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases hit some turbulence last week, as Consumer Sentiment and Trade Balance disappointed. The Unemployment Rate jumped,

AUD/USD Forecast July 8-12

AUD/USD Forecast July 8-12

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the US currency, and lost close to a cent on the week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9060. This week highlights include Consumer Sentiment and Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases continue to struggle, as Retail Sales and

AUD/USD Forecast July 1-5

AUD/USD Forecast July 1-5

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the US currency, and lost about one cent on the week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9137. This week has several highlights, including the Cash Rate, Retail Sales and Building Approvals. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Last week’s sole Australian release was

AUD/USD Forecast June 24-28

AUD/USD Forecast June 24-28

The Australian dollar dropped sharply last week, losing over 300 points against the surging US dollar. AUD/USD closed the week just above the 92 level, at 0.9212. This week’s sole release is Private Sector Credit. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian numbers were respectable last week, as New Motor Vehicles Sales

AUD/USD Forecast June 17-21

AUD/USD Forecast June 17-21

The Australian dollar put together a winning streak for a change, gaining about 140 points against the US dollar last week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9563. This week’s major event is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Minutes. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Aussie posted big gains late in the week, as

AUD/USD Forecast June 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast June 10-14

The Australian dollar continued its losing ways, dropping over a cent against the US dollar last week. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9495. This week’s major event is Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Retail Sales and GDP missed their estimates, and the RBA didn’t do