Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast September 16-20



AUD/USD posted some strong gains, but gave most of those up closed the week with modest gains. The pair ended the week at 0.9243. This week’s key release is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

It wasn’t a very good week for either the US or Australian releases. Australia’s Employment Change slumped to a five-month low, while in the US, retail sales and consumer confidence looked sluggish.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  AUD USD Outlook Sep. 16-20th

  1. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30. Analysts will be paying close attention to this release, which is the key event of the week. The minutes will provide details of the RBA’s last policy meeting, at which time the central bank held interest rates at 2.50%. A report which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
  2. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Tuesday, 1:30. New Motor Vehicle Sales measure the change in the purchase of cars and trucks. The indicator provides an important snapshot of consumer confidence and spending, which are critical for economic growth.
  3. CB Leading Index: Wednesday, 00:00. This indicator is based on 7 economic indicators. The July reading of -0.2% was a disappointment, as it marked the indicator’s first decline this year. The markets are hoping for a gain in September.
  4. RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey Speaks: Wednesday, 1:30. Edey will address a financial forum in Sydney. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the RBA’s future monetary policy.
  5. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 1:30. This is a minor event, as most of the information has been released previously. The markets will be focusing on the part of the bulletin which contains an analysis of current and future economic conditions.

* All times are GMT

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9190 and dropped to a low of 0.9167, breaking through support at 0.9180 (discussed last week). The pair then climbed sharply, breaking past the 0.93 line and touching a high of 0.9354. AUD/USD was unable to hold onto these gains and closed the week at 0.9243.

Live chart of AUD/USD: 


Technical lines from top to bottom:   

We start with resistance at 0.9670. This line was a cap for the pair in late May.

0.9556 has provided resistance since mid-June. At that time, AUD/USD went on a spiral that saw it drop below the 0.92 line.

0.9428 had played a support role since late 2011, but was breached in June and has provided strong resistance since then.

0.9283 saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It starts off the week as weak resistance and could face strong pressure if the Aussie pushes higher.

0.9180 continues to provide support. This line was breached early in the week, but AUD/USD recovered and it continues in a support role.

0.9041 is the next support level. This line has seen activity in August and September, and is currently providing strong support.

The round number of 0.90 is next. This psychologically important level has some breathing room as the Aussie has posted strong gains since the beginning of the month.

0.8893 has been a steady support line since August 2010, as the Australian dollar put together a strong rally which saw it climb above the 1.10 line.

The final support line for now is 0.8747. This line has remained in place since July 2010.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The RBA has indicated that it would like a lower Australian dollar, so we could be due for a correction to the currency’s recent sharp gains.  Over in the US, speculation about QE tapering continues, and uncertainty leading up to the FOMC Statement could lead investors to stick with the safe-haven US dollar.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

AUD/USD Forecast September 9-13

AUD/USD Forecast September 9-13

The Australian dollar sparkled last week as AUD/USD gained around 250 points. The pair closed slightly below the 0.92 line. This week’s key releases include AZ Job Advertisements and Employment Change. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Australian dollar took full advantage of strong Chinese Manufacturing data as well

AUD/USD Forecast September 2-6

AUD/USD Forecast September 2-6

The Australian dollar continues to lose ground, as AUD/USD lost over one cent last week. The pair closed just below the 0.89 line, at 0.8895. The upcoming week is very busy, with 14 releases. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In Australia, Private Capital Expenditure hit a five-month high,

AUD/USD Forecast August 26-30

AUD/USD Forecast August 26-30

AUD/USD reversed direction last week, as the pair dropped about 150 points. AUD/USD ended the week slightly above the 0.90 line, at 0.9021. This week’s market-mover is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian New Motor Sales posted a sharp decline and the RBA minutes indicated that the Australian

AUD/USD Forecast August 19-23

AUD/USD Forecast August 19-23

After a couple of volatile weeks, AUD/USD settled down and posted modest gains last week. AUD/USD ended the week slightly below the 0.92 line. It’s a quiet week ahead, with just six releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian data was a mix last week. Consumer Sentiment was strong, but

AUD/USD Forecast August 12-16

AUD/USD Forecast August 12-16

After tumbling over three cents two weeks ago, the Australian dollar recovered nicely and regained almost all of these losses. AUD/USD ended the week close to the 0.92 line. It’s a very quiet week ahead, with just 5 releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Retail Sales and Employment Change disappointed,

AUD/USD Forecast August 5-9

AUD/USD Forecast August 5-9

The Australian dollar dropped sharply, losing 350 points against the US dollar last week. AUD/USD dipped into 0.88 territory and closed the week just above the 0.89 line, at 0.8902. It’s a very busy week, with 14 releases on the schedule. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Building

AUD/USD Forecast July 29-August 2

AUD/USD Forecast July 29-August 2

The Australian dollar showed some movement in both directions, but ended the week with little net change, closing at 0.9260. This week’s highlights are Building Approvals and PPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD lost some ground in mid-week as Australian CPI missed the estimate and Chinese Manufacturing PMI

AUD/USD Forecast July 22-26

AUD/USD Forecast July 22-26

The Australian dollar rose close to one cent on the week, closing at 0.9170. This week’s highlight is CPI. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD jumped sharply after the RBA minutes pointed to some weakening of the central bank’s easing bias. The pair climbed close to the 0.93 line,

AUD/USD Forecast July 15-19

AUD/USD Forecast July 15-19

The Australian dollar pushed over the 0.93 line, but could not consolidate these gains, and closed the week virtually unchanged, at 0.9038. This week’s highlight is the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook of the events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian releases hit some turbulence last week, as Consumer Sentiment and Trade Balance disappointed. The Unemployment Rate jumped,