AUD/USD Outlook June 4-8

The Australian dollar was down over a cent last week, closing at 0.9683. The currency had a brutal month in May, shedding around seven cents in May against its US counterpart. The upcoming week has 12 releases, including Cash Rate, GDP and Employment Change. Here is an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The ongoing crisis in the Euro-zone continues to weigh heavily on the Australian dollar. Some recent indicators have looked good, such as New Home Sales.However, others have been weak, such as Retail Sales and Building Approvals. With these mixed releases, investors are likely to look elsewhere in search of stability and growth.

Updates: On Friday, Chinese Manufacturing PMI dipped to a five-month low, falling to 50.4 points. MI Inflation Gauge came in at a flat 0.0%. Job Advertisements fell for the second straight month, posting a reading of -2.4%. Company Operating Profits declined by 4.0%, disappointing the markets, which had forecast a 2.1% drop. The Services Index will be released later on Monday. AUD/USD was up slightly, and was trading back above the 0.97 line, at 0.9707.  Current Account posted a deficit of -14.9 billion, its worst reading since last May. As expected, the central banks left the interest rate at 3.5%. The RBA followed by releasing its Rate Statement. The aussie is up slightly, as AUD/USD was trading at 0.9732. GDP hit a five year high, jumping 1.3%. This figure was well above the market forecast of 0.5%. The aussie responded by gaining ground, as AUD/USD was trading at 0.9863. Key employment data will be released tomorrow. If the releases are positive, the Australian dollar could continue to push upwards. The Construction Index showed almost no change, recording a reading of 34.7 points. Employment Change stunned the markets, posting a gain of 38.9 thousand newly employed people. The markets had forecast a decline of 2.2K. As expected, the Unemployment Rate jumped to 5.1%, up from 4.9% in the May reading. The aussie was up on the strong employment data, as AUD/USD climbed close to parity. The pair was trading at 0.9971, its best level since mid – May.

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:  

1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:30. This consumer inflation reading is released monthly, and precedes the quarterly official CPI publication. The indicator dropped to 0.3% in the previous release.
2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. Traders should treat this index with caution, as it tends to be very volatile, which makes accurate forecasts difficult. The indicator dropped 3.1% in May, its sharpest drop since last June. Will the indicator rebound back into positive territory this month?
3. Company Operating Profits: Monday, 1:30. This quarterly indicator plunged 6.6% in Q4 of 2011, its worst reading since August 2009. The markets are forecasting another decline in Q1, of -2.2%.
4. AIG Services Index: Monday, 23:30.  Services PMI looked awful in May, falling to 39.6 points. This was the index’s lowest reading since April 2009. Another weak reading could hurt the aussie.
5. Current Account: Tuesday, 1:30. This quarterly indicator dropped sharply in Q4 of 2011. The markets are forecasting another sharp decline for the Q1 reading, to -14.1 billion.
6. Cash Rate: Tuesday, 4:30. The markets will be watching the interest rate release carefully, as the central bank slashed rates by a full 0.50% in May, sending the Australian dollar on a sharp downward spiral from which it has yet to recover. The forecast calls for no change to the present rate of 3.75%.
7. RBA Rate Statement: Tuesday, 4:30. The Rate Statement follows the Cash Rate announcement. Although no rate change is expected, the markets will be looking for clues about further monetary policy.
8. GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. This key indicator fell in Q4 of 2011 to 0.4%. A reading of 0.5% is expected for Q1.
9. AIG Construction Index: Wednesday, 23:30. The construction sector has been in a prolonged contraction, and the May reading was a very weak 34.9 points. The markets are not expecting any dramatic improvements in June.
10. Employment Change: Thursday, 1:30. Employment Change has looked sharp for the past two readings, with readings well into positive territory. However, the June estimate calls for almost no change with a forecast of 0.9 thousand newly employed people. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise from 4.9% to 5.1%. This sharp rise could quickly pull down the aussie.
11. Trade Balance: Friday, 1:30. Trade Balance dropped sharply in April, posting the largest deficit in two years. The markets are predicting a smaller deficit in June, of -0.92 billion.
12. Home Loans: Friday, 1:30. Home Loans was up slightly last month, with a reading of 0.3%. The forecast for June calls for a very small increase of 0.1%.

* All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD opened at 0.9813. The pair reached a high of of 0.9898, but then dropped, falling to 0.9580. The pair rebounded somewhat, closing the week at 0.9683, slightly above the resistance line of 0.9668 (discussed last week).

Technical levels from top to bottom:

We begin with strong resistance just above the 1.04 line, at 1.0402. This line was fluid for much of April. Close by, 1.0340 is the next line of resistance. Below, the line of 1.0230 is providing resistance.

Next is the line of 1.0080, which had been protecting the all-important parity level since December 2011. This line was breached in May, and is has strengthened as AUD/USD trades at lower levels. The next line of resistance is  0.9917, which was breached by the pair last week.  Below, is the line of 0.9860. This is followed by resistance at 0.9780, which was providing weak support just last week.

 The pair is getting weak support at 0.9668. AUD/USD broke through this line this week, but then retraced. Look for this line to be tested further. This is followed by support at 0.9541. Next, there is strong support just above the 0.94 level, at 0.9405. Below, there is support at 0.9294, which has held firm since September 2011. The final support level for now is at 0.92221.

I continue to be bearish on AUD/USD.

The Australian dollar had a terrible May, and June may not prove to be a whole lot better. With the ongoing crisis in the Euro-zone, investors will likely continue to favor safe haven currencies. As well, weak global demand, particularly in China, is putting a dent in Australian exports and weighing on the aussie.

The Aussie sometimes moves in tandem with gold. You can trade binary options on gold using this technical analysis.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.