Category: AUD/USD Forecast

AUD/USD Forecast March 17-21



AUD/USD settled down this week, showing little change as it closed just above the 0.90 level. There are just five events on this week’s schedule. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

Australian Employment Change surprised with a very strong reading, but the Aussie failed to take advantage. In the US, retail sales numbers met expectations, while Unemployment Claims dropped to a three-month low.

Updates:

AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:   AUDUSD Forecast Mar. 17-21

  1. New Motor Vehicles Sales: Monday, 00:30. This indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as motor vehicles are big-ticket items. The indicator disappointed in January, declining by 3.5%, its worst showing in six months. The markets will be hoping for a positive turnaround in the upcoming release.
  2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 00:30. This is the highlight event of the week. The minutes provide details of the RBA’s most recent policy meeting, and any unexpected comments or views from the RBA policymakers could affect the movement of AUD/USD.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. The MI Leading Index is based on 9 composite economic indicators, but is a minor event since most of the data has been previously released. The index continues to post weak readings, and came in at -0.2% last month.
  4. RBA Bulletin: Thursday, 00:30. The RBA Bulletin is published on a quarterly basis, and contains the Bank’s view of current and future economic conditions. It is unlikely to have much impact on the Aussie, since much of the information has already been released.
  5. CB Leading Index: Thursday, 23:00. This index is based on 7 economic indicators. The indicator surprised the markets in January with a strong gain of 0.8%, its best showing in almost 2 years. Will we see another sharp gain in the February release?

*All times are GMT.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD started the week at 0.9056 and dropped to a low of 0.8924, a support at 0.8893 held firm (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions, breaking above the 0.91 line as it touched a high of 0.9104. AUD/USD closed the week at 0.9020.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.9442. This marked the high point of the pair in November, which saw the Aussie go on a sharp slide and drop below the 0.89 line. This is followed by resistance at 0.9368, which was an important line in mid-November.

Next, there is resistance at 0.9283. This line saw a lot of action in the months of June and July, alternating between resistance and support roles. It has provided steady resistance since November.

0.9180 follows. This is an important line, which has remained firm since late November.

We find support for the pair at 0.9000, which was breached as the pair dropped back into 0.89 territory. This key line is providing weak support and could see action early in the week.

0.8893 is the next support line. It held firm as the pair dropped close to the 0.89 line before recovering.

0.8728 marks the low point of an Aussie rally which began in early February and pushed above the 0.90 level.

This is followed by 0.8578, which has remained intact since July 2010.

The final support level for now is 0.8432, which played a key support role in late 2009.

I am bearish on AUD/USD.

The wobbly Australian dollar finds itself above the key 0.90 level, but just barely. The US Federal Reserve is expected to trim QE for the third time next week, and this vote of confidence in the US economy could give a lift to the US dollar. The RBA minutes are likely to state that the Aussie is overvalued, and this could weigh on the currency.

AUD/USD Forecast March 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast March 10-14

AUD/USD had an excellent week, posting gains of about 160 points. The pair closed at 0.9060. The highlights this week are the NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. The Aussie got some help from excellent Australian releases last week, including Building Permits and GDP.

AUD/USD Forecast March 3-7

AUD/USD Forecast March 3-7

AUD/USD continued to lose ground last week, posting modest losses. The pair closed at 0.8919. This week is very busy with 16 releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. US releases continue to disappoint, as GDP missed the estimate and Unemployment Claims were higher than expected. In Australia, Private Capital

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 24-28

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 24-28

AUD/USD dipped below the 0.90 level and lost close to a cent on the week. The pair closed at 0.8971. This week’s highlight is Private Capital Expenditure. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Both US and Australian releases ran into turbulence last week. In Australia, New Motor Vehicle Sales posted a

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 17-21

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 17-21

AUD/USD posted weekly gains for the third consecutive time, climbing close to one cent last week. The pair closed slightly above the key 0.90 line. This week’s highlight is the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Employment Change was a major disappointment, but the Aussie managed to shrug off the weak release.

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 10-14

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 10-14

AUD/USD enjoyed an excellent week, gaining over 200 points. The pair tested the key 0.900 line and closed the week at 0.8957. This week’s highlights are NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 3-7

AUD/USD Forecast Feb. 3-7

AUD/USD continues to trade at low levels, but did managed to post modest gains over the week. The pair closed the week at 0.8751 line. The upcoming week is busy, with 12 releases. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian PPI was sluggish, another indication of an underperforming economy. In

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 27-31

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 27-31

AUD/USD continues to tumble, and lost close to 100 points last week. The pair closed the week below the 0.87 line. This week’s highlights are NAB Business Confidence and PPI. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. In the US, Unemployment Claims enjoyed another good week, beating the estimate. Australian Consumer Sentiment posted another decline,

AUD/USD Forecast January 20-24

AUD/USD Forecast January 20-24

AUD/USD lost ground throughout the week, losing about 150 points. The pair closed the week below the 0.88 line. This week’s key release is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian Employment Change was a disaster, adding fuel to the Aussie’s slide this week. In the US, the

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 13-17

AUD/USD Forecast Jan. 13-17

AUD/USD weakened during the week but ended up showing little change. The pair closed the week just under the key 0.90 line, at 0.8995. This week’s key release is Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD. Australian numbers were a mix, as Building Approvals sagged while Retail Sales