For a change, the Greek crisis receives a bit less attention and US data is in the forefront.
The better than expected figures from the US raised expectations for the NFP and raised the value of the dollar. And in Greece, all eyes are on Sunday’s Greferendum. Updates.
Greece
Yesterday was a busy day: the day after Greek defaulted on the IMF was full of news: talk about Tsipras backing down and accepting creditors’ demands was rebuffed by the Prime Minster, which seemed quite defiant in a TV address.
And while French President Hollande said an agreement can be reached before the referendum, German Chancellor Merkel had the last word, denying negotiations until after the referendum.
This was also the decision taken by the Eurogroup – keeping the pressure on Greece and talking only on Monday.
And what do the polls show? An initial poll showed the NO campaign, championed by the government, leading by 47% to 36%. A second poll showed a 47% / 43% for the YES campaign which accepts the creditors’ demands.
Tension is mounting towards the vote on July 5th. Here are all the updates on Greece.
US data
The US ADP NFP beat expectations, showing a gain of 237K private sector jobs, better than had been anticipated. While there is no 100% correlation between the ADP number and the actual private sector component of the NFP, expectations are certainly higher now.
The second data point was the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Also here, the score of 53.5 beat expectations, but more importantly, the employment component was on the rise, reaching 55.5 points. The manufacturing sector is dwarfed by the services one, but we don’t have the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI until Monday.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report is published today, Thursday, due to the 4th of July weekend in the US. Expectations stand on a gain of 230K jobs and a monthly rise of the average hourly earnings by 0.2%. But it’s quite possible that expectations are higher.
See how to trade the NFP with EUR/USD.
EUR/USD
The positive US data has taken center stage and pushed EUR/USD lower. The low point reached in the Asian session was 1.1031, but the pair is still struggling with the 1.1050 level.
Apart from the round number of 1.10, support is found at the week’s lows of 1.0950 and 1.0820. Resistance awaits at 1.1160, which was Friday’s close.
Here is the chart:
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