A small beat on the US NFP – 211K, wages are up 0.2% m/m and 2.3% as expected. The unemployment rate remains at 5% but with a rise in the participation rate. The previous number was revised to the upside: to 298K. The “real unemployment rate” U6, is up to 9.9%.
The US dollar is stronger across the board. This is a good report all in all, and it adds cement to a Fed rate hike hike in less than two weeks. Yellen cemented it in her two public appearances earlier this week, and the data is certainly supportive.
The US was expected to report a gain of around 200K jobs and a rise of 0.2% m/m in wages. This is the last NFP release before the December decision by the Fed.
The US dollar was still struggling against the majors after the big Draghi disappointment.
Data (updated)
- Non-Farm Payrolls: 211K (exp. +200K, previously 271K before revisions)
- Participation Rate: 62.5% (62.4% last month )
- Unemployment Rate: 5% (exp.5%, last month 5.1% before revisions)
- Revisions: +35K (positive)
- Average Hourly Earnings: 0.2%, 2.3% (exp. +0.2% m/m, last month 0.4% m/m, 2.5% y/y)
- Private Sector: 197K(ADP showed 217K).
- Real Unemployment Rate (U-6): 9.9% (previous: 9.8%).
- Employment to population ratio: 59.3% (previous: 59.3%)
- Average workweek: 34.5 (last month: 34.5).
In a separate release, US trade balance came out worse than expected at -43 billion, but this was overshadowed by the NFP.
The US dollar is stronger against all currencies, and it seems that the most accurate reaction belongs to USD/JPY.
EUR/USD is still enjoying the Draghi disappointment, but nothing lasts forever.
3 things that can push EUR/USD back down
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